Copper surges past 14,000 dollars as global smelting output declines

Wednesday 13 May 2026 - 11:29

By: Dakir Madiha

Copper surges past 14,000 dollars as global smelting output declines

Copper prices rose sharply on Tuesday, briefly crossing 14,000 dollars per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, moving close to their all-time high of 14,527.50 dollars reached on 29 January. The rally reflects tightening global supply conditions driven by geopolitical tensions, stronger demand from China, and a marked slowdown in global smelting activity.

The supply squeeze has been intensified by disruptions across multiple production hubs. Satellite data indicates a steep drop in global copper smelting activity in April, with outages reported in Iran and Australia and irregular operations at major Chilean facilities. These disruptions have added pressure to an already strained supply chain affected by reduced processing capacity and logistical bottlenecks.

Energy-related constraints have further complicated global copper flows. Restrictions affecting key maritime routes have disrupted the movement of raw materials essential for copper refining, including sulfur and sulfuric acid. These inputs play a critical role in global copper production, and any shortage directly impacts smelting efficiency. Analysts warn that continued instability in key transit corridors could prolong supply tightness.

Market participants remain divided on the medium-term outlook. Some analysts expect prices to stay elevated around 13,000 dollars per ton, with potential upside toward 15,000 dollars if demand linked to electrification and energy transition accelerates. Others project a possible surplus in the coming year, arguing that weakening macroeconomic conditions could pressure prices despite current disruptions.

China’s copper industry continues to operate at near-record utilization levels, partially offsetting declines elsewhere. However, the balance between strong Chinese output and constrained global supply remains uncertain. Market direction will likely depend on whether production recovery outside China can stabilize inventories or whether persistent disruptions push prices toward new records.