China declares El Niño state and warns of peak intensity this winter

13:00

By: Dakir Madiha

China declares El Niño state and warns of peak intensity this winter

China's National Climate Centre officially declared on Friday that surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have entered an El Niño state, warning that the phenomenon will develop into a moderate or stronger event over the summer, peak in autumn and winter, and gradually weaken by next spring. Deputy director Gao Rong told reporters that the probability of an intense El Niño event is increasing.

The announcement confirms what scientists have been tracking for several weeks: a massive Kelvin wave, a body of warm water stretching nearly 15,000 kilometres across the Pacific with subsurface temperatures exceeding 7.5 degrees Celsius above average, is accelerating the emergence of what could become one of the most powerful El Niño events ever recorded. The scale and intensity of this underwater heat mass have drawn comparisons to the precursors of historically destructive episodes.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of an El Niño developing between May and July at 82 percent, with a 96 percent likelihood it will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027. The agency estimates roughly a two-in-three chance the event will reach strong or very strong intensity, which would place it in the same category as the episodes recorded in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016. Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Albany, has stated there is approximately a 50 percent chance this event becomes the most intense ever recorded in historical data.

Asia's agricultural sector faces acute exposure to the developing phenomenon. India's meteorological department is forecasting monsoon rainfall at only 92 percent of the long-term benchmark average, with a 35 percent probability of significantly deficient rains, more than double the historical norm. Rice, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane are the most vulnerable crops, as weakened monsoon winds would compromise rainfall during the June-to-September period that accounts for 70 percent of India's annual precipitation. In the Philippines, historical data shows El Niño episodes reduce rice yields by 5 to 10 percent, with the most severe events capable of cutting production by as much as 12 percent. Southern China faces flood risks linked to disruptions in the East Asian monsoon, which could damage late-season rice harvests.

The agricultural threat arrives as Asia is already contending with energy supply disruptions. Drought conditions and high temperatures associated with El Niño are expected to strain electricity grids across the region, compounding fuel shortages tied to broader geopolitical tensions. Projected dry conditions also risk reducing maize, wheat, coffee, and cocoa production across Southeast Asia, raising the prospect of food price inflation across the world's most populous continent. NOAA's next forecast update is expected on 11 June.