AI IPO surge raises fears of a new tech bubble

Wednesday 03 - 14:31

By: Dakir Madiha

AI IPO surge raises fears of a new tech bubble

The wave of technology initial public offerings expected in 2026 is drawing comparisons with the period that preceded the collapse of the dot-com bubble, according to research firm TS Lombard. The warning comes as some of the world's most valuable artificial intelligence companies prepare to enter public markets, potentially adding trillions of dollars in market value within a short period.

Anthropic disclosed on June 1 that it had confidentially filed for an initial public offering with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The move positions the company to become the first major generative AI firm to go public. Anthropic is now ahead of OpenAI in the race to list its shares, although both companies are expected to reach public markets later this year with valuations approaching $1 trillion each.

The scale of the upcoming IPO pipeline is unprecedented. SpaceX publicly filed its S-1 registration statement on May 20 and is expected to debut on the Nasdaq in mid-June with a valuation estimated between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Combined, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could introduce more than $3 trillion in new market capitalization to public investors. By comparison, the entire U.S. IPO market raised only $45 billion during 2025.

TS Lombard said recent data from the Securities and Exchange Commission suggest that surges in IPO activity have historically coincided with major market peaks. The firm pointed to patterns observed before the bursting of the dot-com bubble and ahead of the 2022 bear market. Analysts argue that periods of intense investor enthusiasm often encourage companies to go public near the height of market optimism.

The second half of 2026 is also expected to bring a broader wave of technology listings after years in which startups preferred to remain privately funded. Estimates indicate that nearly $500 billion worth of shares could reach public markets as lockup periods expire and early investors gain opportunities to sell holdings. Such a large increase in available stock could test investor demand and market liquidity.

Concerns have intensified because gains in U.S. equities have become increasingly concentrated in a small group of AI-linked companies. The S&P 500 has risen 79% since the end of 2022, with firms such as Nvidia, Alphabet, Broadcom and Microsoft accounting for a large share of the advance. At the same time, roughly 61% of global venture capital investment flowed into AI-related businesses during 2025, underscoring the sector's dominance in attracting funding.

Questions about valuation remain central to the debate. None of the three largest anticipated IPOs are profitable under traditional accounting measures. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while OpenAI is projected to lose about $14 billion this year. Investors now face a critical test: whether they are willing to continue supporting trillion-dollar valuations for companies that remain deeply unprofitable as the AI boom enters a new phase.