Trump avoids predicting US recession amid market volatility

Monday 10 March 2025 - 08:30

By: Zahouani Ilham

Trump avoids predicting US recession amid market volatility

United States President Donald Trump has refrained from predicting whether the country is headed for a recession as concerns mount over his economic policies.

In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump sidestepped questions about a potential downturn, stating, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very significant. We’re bringing wealth back to America.” He expressed optimism, saying that while the process takes time, it would ultimately benefit the country.

His remarks come as investors react to shifting tariff policies and indications of an economic slowdown. Last week, Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, while also increasing duties on Chinese goods to 20 percent. However, within 48 hours, he postponed some of the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports until April 2.

These policy shifts contributed to a 3 percent decline in the S&P 500 index last week, marking its worst performance since September. On Thursday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve adjusted its GDP forecast for the first quarter, predicting a 2.4 percent contraction instead of the previous 2.3 percent expansion estimate. Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession within the next year from 15 percent to 20 percent.

Despite these concerns, some indicators suggest resilience in the economy. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the addition of 151,000 jobs in January—slightly below expectations but consistent with the 2024 average.

Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession fears in an NBC interview, asserting, “Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. There’s going to be no recession in America.” He insisted there was “no chance” of an economic downturn.