Swiss banks expect Gulf wealth inflows as Iran war drives capital flight
Wealth managers in Switzerland are preparing for a surge of capital from Gulf investors as the conflict involving Iran shakes financial confidence in Middle Eastern economic hubs. Bankers and advisers overseeing more than one trillion dollars in assets say wealthy individuals across the Gulf are considering transferring funds to Switzerland as regional security deteriorates.
More than a dozen Swiss bankers and financial consultants told Reuters they expect increased inflows from the region. Iranian missile and drone strikes have hit or threatened cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, and Manama, locations that for years marketed themselves as stable global financial centers.
The shift toward Swiss assets builds on an existing trend. Cash holdings in Switzerland by private clients from the United Arab Emirates have already increased by roughly 40 percent over the past three years, according to Patrik Spiller, head of wealth management at Deloitte Switzerland.
Spiller said the movement has accelerated following US and Israeli strikes against Iran in June 2025 and the recent escalation of hostilities. He told Reuters that banks, family offices, and wealthy individuals are actively discussing transferring assets to Switzerland amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.
Martin Hess, chief economist at the Swiss Bankers Association, pointed to what he called the enduring appeal of Swiss financial stability. Switzerland’s political neutrality, strong legal framework, and stable financial system continue to attract investors seeking safe havens during periods of geopolitical risk. Demand for security has also pushed the Swiss franc to its strongest level against the euro in a decade.
The conflict, now entering its third week, has placed increasing pressure on Gulf financial centers. Iranian forces have launched hundreds of projectiles toward the United Arab Emirates as part of what Iranian sources describe as Operation True Promise 4.
Several strikes have landed near prominent locations including the Fairmont hotel on Palm Jumeirah and Dubai International Airport. Aviation disruption has been extensive, with more than 37,000 flights canceled. Emirates airline has reported a 40 percent drop in passenger traffic, while Dubai’s stock market has also experienced sharp declines.
Dubai had previously attracted thousands of high net worth residents seeking tax advantages and political stability. By 2025, roughly 9,800 millionaires had relocated to the city, bringing an estimated 63 billion dollars in private wealth.
Earlier forecasts from Boston Consulting Group projected that the United Arab Emirates would hold close to one trillion dollars in cross border wealth by 2029. The current conflict now raises questions about whether that trajectory can continue.
Swiss financial institutions are cautious about estimating the scale of incoming capital. Spiller suggested that Switzerland could eventually receive several tens of billions of dollars from Gulf investors if the conflict persists.
Liquidity typically moves first, followed later by portfolio investments such as equities and bonds.
Major Swiss banks have declined to provide detailed comments. UBS and Julius Baer did not respond to questions from Reuters. Pictet said it had received inquiries from clients in the region but described the increase so far as limited.
Till Budelmann, chief investment officer at Zurich based Bergos, said one European investor who had previously been considering opening an account requested an immediate meeting after the outbreak of hostilities.
Officials in several Gulf states are also reassessing how their sovereign wealth funds allocate global investments. According to a Gulf official cited by Reuters, three governments have begun reviewing investment strategies for funds collectively worth several trillion dollars as they respond to the economic shock created by the conflict.
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