Russia prepares rolling draft of reservists as war losses outpace recruitment

Yesterday 08:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Russia prepares rolling draft of reservists as war losses outpace recruitment

Russia is quietly setting conditions for a phased call-up of reservists as mounting battlefield losses in Ukraine begin to exceed the country’s ability to recruit new troops. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say the Kremlin appears to be moving toward a system of limited, rolling mobilization to avoid a repeat of the chaotic 2022 partial draft that triggered protests and a mass exodus of citizens. Western estimates indicate that for the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Russian military casualties in January 2026 surpassed new recruitment by around 9,000 personnel, underscoring growing strain on Moscow’s manpower reserves. December 2025 was particularly lethal, with as many as 35,000 Russian soldiers reported killed in a single month, roughly double NATO’s average monthly fatality estimate for that year.

The shift toward a more coercive system is being underpinned by new legislation adopted by the State Duma. On 18 February, lawmakers passed in first reading a bill that tightens penalties for “distortion of historical truth” and for “evasion of the duty to defend the Fatherland,” language ISW assesses is intended to give authorities a legal basis to prosecute critics of reserve call-ups or those seeking to avoid service. Anatoly Vyborny, deputy chair of the Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption, framed the bill as an effort to mold public attitudes so that dodging military service is seen as socially unacceptable, signalling a broader push to stigmatize resistance to mobilization. At the same time, the government has moved to restrict access to the Telegram messaging platform, which officials view as a key channel for dissent, in an apparent bid to limit public debate and organize opposition ahead of any new draft measures.

The Kremlin has spent more than a year constructing the legal framework needed to tap its large pool of reservists without formally declaring a new mobilization. In October 2025, the Russian cabinet approved a bill allowing active reservists to be deployed in expeditionary operations abroad without a formal mobilization decree or a state of war, effectively enabling overseas combat deployments on the basis of reserve contracts alone. ISW estimates that Russia’s mobilization reserve now comprises roughly two million people who have signed agreements with the Ministry of Defence, giving the state a substantial pool of trained personnel it can call upon. In December 2025, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree authorizing the compulsory call-up of an unspecified number of inactive reservists in 2026 for what is described as “military training,” a measure analysts believe is intended to camouflage covert mobilization under routine exercises. Earlier changes introduced in 2024 and 2025 also allowed conscription to be carried out year-round and expanded the use of electronic draft notices, with penalties including travel bans and financial restrictions for those who fail to appear.

These steps reflect lessons learned from the September 2022 partial mobilization, when the abrupt call-up of some 300,000 reservists prompted demonstrations and prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave the country. ISW argues that Putin is now acting from a position of relative weakness, as the costly system of financial incentives used to attract volunteers shows signs of exhaustion. Western and Ukrainian sources estimate that Russian forces have suffered around 1.2 million to 1.25 million total casualties since the invasion began in February 2022, with several hundred thousand soldiers killed, making the conflict one of the bloodiest for a major power since the Second World War. Ukrainian officials say Russia’s expanding use of poorly trained assault units, combined with Ukraine’s growing reliance on drones and precision strikes, has driven casualty numbers to what Kyiv describes as unsustainable levels. Ukraine’s new defence minister has publicly set a goal of inflicting 50,000 Russian casualties per month, arguing that sustained attrition will expose the limits of Russia’s manpower and force Moscow into increasingly unpopular mobilization measures.

On the Russian side, officials insist that volunteer recruitment remains robust, with former president Dmitry Medvedev claiming that around 422,000 contract soldiers were signed up in 2025. Analysts caution, however, that while headline figures suggest the army can still attract new personnel with high salaries and regional bonuses, the pool of citizens willing to fight for money is shrinking, particularly as reports of heavy losses circulate. Budget pressures have already pushed some regional authorities to scale back or briefly suspend enlistment bonuses, before later restoring or increasing them to sustain recruitment numbers. ISW and other observers say this mix of legal pressure, information controls and financial inducements points to a calibrated strategy: avoid a politically explosive, nationwide mobilization order while steadily pulling more reservists into combat through administrative decrees and quiet coercion. If Russian casualties continue to outstrip available volunteers, the Kremlin is likely to lean more heavily on this rolling reserve system in order to keep offensive operations going in Ukraine without openly acknowledging a new wave of mobilization.