Trump oil embargo pushes Cuba to the brink of collapse

Cuba is sliding deeper into economic turmoil as a sweeping United States oil embargo has throttled fuel supplies to the island, triggering emergency rationing, prolonged blackouts and the grounding of flights during the peak tourism season. President Donald Trump has framed the measures as leverage to force Havana into concessions, warning that Cuba’s leaders “should absolutely make a deal, because it’s really a humanitarian threat,” while insisting that until then “there’s an embargo” and “there’s no oil, there’s no money, there’s no anything.” Cuban officials say no significant oil shipment has reached the country in weeks, a gap that has left fuel stations dry, electricity generation sharply curtailed and daily life increasingly paralyzed.

The confrontation escalated after Washington moved directly against Cuba’s main energy lifeline. On 3 January, U.S. authorities effectively seized control of Venezuela’s oil exports under tightened sanctions, cutting off deliveries from a supplier that had provided the bulk of Cuba’s imported crude. In 2025, Venezuela accounted for roughly 61 percent of Cuba’s estimated 13.7 million barrels of imported crude, while Mexico supplied around a quarter, according to shipping and industry data cited by S&P Global and other analytics firms, though some alternative estimates put Mexico’s share even higher. The loss of Venezuelan flows was followed on 29 January by Executive Order 14380, in which Trump declared a national emergency over the Cuban government and authorized additional tariffs on goods from any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to the island. Under mounting pressure and facing the risk of U.S. penalties, Mexico halted its remaining humanitarian fuel shipments by late January, leaving Cuba with no major suppliers willing to risk crossing Washington’s new red lines.

With reserves dwindling, Havana has moved to conserve every possible barrel. Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga announced a compressed four-day workweek for state entities, strict fuel rationing, reduced public transportation and shortened school hours, alongside the temporary closure of some tourism facilities that can no longer be adequately serviced. Airports have warned airlines that they cannot guarantee jet fuel, forcing cancellations and suspensions that are dealing a fresh blow to an economy already battered by years of crisis and the loss of visitors. Satellite data analyzed by independent researchers show nighttime illumination over Cuba has plunged by as much as half in some areas, a stark visual indicator of the depth of the power cuts sweeping the country. Cuban authorities argue they are prioritizing electricity for hospitals, water pumping and other essential services, but acknowledge that rolling blackouts often extend well beyond 24 hours in many communities.

The United Nations and international human rights specialists have condemned the U.S. approach, warning that the embargo’s impact on fuel supplies is undermining basic rights and essential services rather than targeting decision-makers in Havana. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk has called for the lifting of unilateral sectoral sanctions that restrict oil deliveries, describing their effects as “significant and indiscriminate” for the Cuban population. He and other experts have cautioned that sustained shortages could cripple hospitals, disrupt access to clean water and sanitation, and deepen food insecurity across the island. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has privately and publicly signaled alarm, warning that Cuba could slide toward humanitarian “collapse” if its fuel needs remain unmet for a prolonged period.

In Washington, pressure on the administration is coming not only from international bodies but also from within Trump’s own political camp. Three Cuban-American Republican lawmakers, Carlos Giménez, Mario Díaz-Balart and María Elvira Salazar  have urged the White House to go further by revoking export licenses they say allow luxury goods and more than 100 million dollars’ worth of supplies to flow to the Cuban state and its elites rather than to ordinary citizens. In letters to the Treasury and Commerce departments, they have demanded a full review of remaining commercial authorizations, arguing that any loopholes weaken the embargo’s intended effect on the Cuban government. The administration has so far maintained that its actions are necessary to confront what it describes as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” posed by Havana, language used in the executive order to justify the national emergency declaration.

Cuba, for its part, is scrambling for alternative energy sources while trying to weather the immediate shock. Russia has pledged to dispatch crude oil and refined products as “humanitarian” shipments, but the last recorded delivery dates back to early 2025 and Moscow has acknowledged that any new operation would face heightened risks if U.S. forces move to intercept tankers suspected of violating the embargo. Longer term, Cuban planners are leaning heavily on renewable energy to reduce dependence on imported fuel: by late 2025, 35 Chinese-backed solar parks with a combined capacity of about 750 megawatts were reported to be operating on the island, part of a plan to build 92 such facilities capable of generating around 2 gigawatts by 2028. Analysts estimate that, without fresh supplies, Cuba’s fuel stocks could be exhausted within weeks, turning the current standoff into a test of political endurance between Washington and Havana with millions of ordinary Cubans caught in the middle. Trump has declined to specify the precise concessions he is seeking, repeating only that Cuban leaders “should absolutely make a deal before it’s too late,” a phrase that underscores both the pressure and uncertainty surrounding the crisis.