Ontario's snap election and the challenge of US tariffs

Thursday 27 February 2025 - 15:36

Voters in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, are heading to the polls on Thursday to elect a new premier, who may face the challenging task of protecting the province’s economy amid potential US trade tariffs.

Doug Ford, the leader of the Progressive Conservative party and the incumbent premier since 2018, called for the snap election last month, claiming he needs a "strong mandate" to navigate a possible trade conflict with the United States.

Ford's critics have argued that the election call is a strategic move to divert attention from an ongoing criminal investigation into his government’s handling of a now-canceled plan to build on protected lands.

Lydia Miljan, a political science professor at the University of Windsor, suggested that Ford may have been planning the election for several months, given his party's favorable polling numbers. Ford also introduced policies intended to strengthen his position, such as sending $200 rebate checks to Ontarians up-to-date on their taxes, a move critics viewed as a vote-buying tactic.

Ford has been vocal against US tariffs, particularly at a time when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was trailing in the polls before his resignation. Miljan noted that this timing could benefit Ford politically.

Throughout the campaign, Ford has worn a “Canada Is Not for Sale” hat, visited steel plants to promise protection for workers, and made multiple trips to Washington, DC, to advocate for Ontario’s stance against tariffs.

Meanwhile, Ford’s opponents—Bonnie Crombie, leader of the provincial Liberal party, and Marit Stiles, leader of the Ontario New Democratic party—have pointed to various scandals during his tenure. These include the 2022 scrapping of a controversial plan to build on protected lands, which led to a minister’s resignation, as well as issues like Ontario's struggling healthcare system, cuts to education, and a growing housing crisis.

Voter turnout may be a concern, as advance voting has seen a sharp decline, with only 6% of eligible voters casting ballots early, a significant drop from previous elections. Miljan expressed concern that this could signal a suppressed voter turnout for the general election.

Regardless of the outcome, the newly elected government will need to navigate uncertainty, especially as the US, under Trump, remains unpredictable. Ontario will need to focus on increasing productivity, assisting manufacturers, and diversifying export markets to reduce reliance on the US, which has made the province vulnerable to trade disruptions.