Moroccan Purchasing Power Challenged: A Multifaceted Analysis by HCP
In a comprehensive study, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in Morocco has shed light on the intricate dynamics of purchasing power among Moroccan households. Leveraging an innovative web-based index that tracks online purchasing intentions, coupled with conventional data, the report offers a nuanced perspective on the real purchasing power of Moroccans.
The analysis, developed by four economists, establishes a correlation between online shopping behaviors and the financial capacity of Moroccan consumers, providing a valuable tool for understanding economic trends.
Erosion of Purchasing Power
From 2020 to 2022, Morocco, like many other nations, grappled with the severe economic consequences of the global pandemic. Lockdown measures and business closures led to a significant decline in purchasing power, exacerbated by rising inflationary pressures. The report indicates an annual average decrease of 0.22% in per capita purchasing power during this period, contrasting with an annual increase of 1.2% observed between 2015 and 2019.
Urban-Rural Disparities
The report highlights the contrasting dynamics between urban and rural areas. In 2022, although purchasing power declined in both regions, rural areas were hit harder, with a 2.65% decrease compared to 0.96% in urban areas. This discrepancy can be primarily attributed to higher inflation rates in rural areas (3.2% in rural areas versus 2.7% in urban areas during the 2020-2022 period).
Socioeconomic Impacts
The HCP's findings also reveal that fluctuations in purchasing power are not uniformly distributed across social strata. In 2020, the poorest 20% experienced a 4.51% drop in purchasing power, while the wealthiest segment suffered a 5.53% decline. This trend somewhat reversed in 2021, with a marked recovery across all categories, but it remains precarious in the face of ongoing inflation.
Shared Struggles: Employees and Self-Employed
Both employees and self-employed workers experienced similar trajectories in purchasing power, with increases in 2019 followed by drastic drops in 2020. Although the 2021 recovery was favorable, 2022 witnessed another decline, illustrating the persistent vulnerability of workers across sectors to high inflation.
The adoption of modern statistical tools, such as Big Data analysis and web-based indices, could play a crucial role in understanding current and future economic trends, according to the report's authors. These methods offer a unique window into the real concerns of households, essential for developing effective economic policies aimed at stabilizing and improving the purchasing power of Moroccans during times of uncertainty.