Madrid unprepared for Morocco’s pressure on Ceuta and Melilla

Thursday 28 August 2025 - 14:15

By: Sahili Aya

Madrid unprepared for Morocco’s pressure on Ceuta and Melilla

A new military report has reignited the debate in Spain over the future of the North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. The study, authored by Spanish army commander Emilio José Arias Otero for the Center for National Defense Studies (Ceseden), warns that Morocco is stepping up pressure on the territories, while Madrid responds with what he describes as a “weak and reactive strategy.”

The report highlights a growing imbalance of power between Morocco and Spain. It points out that Morocco’s military modernization — including drones, advanced air defense systems, and frigates supplied by the United States, France, and Israel — represents an “unprecedented” shift that could alter the regional balance.

However, the commander stresses that Moroccan pressure is not solely military. It combines diplomatic moves, economic tools, migration management, and technological capabilities, which Spain has not adequately countered. According to him, Madrid’s policies are defensive, leaving Morocco free to dictate the pace of bilateral tensions.

The report also revisits Spain’s diplomatic approach regarding Sahara, noting that Madrid’s support for Morocco’s autonomy plan came without clear guarantees in return. Otero calls this a “dangerous concession,” arguing it could encourage Rabat to increase pressure on Ceuta and Melilla.

Another vulnerability lies in NATO’s security umbrella. Ceuta and Melilla are not explicitly covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, raising doubts about whether a potential conflict would trigger collective defense. The 2002 Perejil Island crisis is cited as a reminder of these uncertainties.

The report concludes that Spain must adopt a coherent strategic vision, reinforce its military capabilities, and take a firmer diplomatic stance. It also recommends reducing excessive reliance on European and Atlantic allies and developing tools to respond to hybrid threats.