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Goldman Sachs warns Brent could top $100 if Hormuz stays closed

Friday 10 - 09:40
By: Dakir Madiha
Goldman Sachs warns Brent could top $100 if Hormuz stays closed

Goldman Sachs warned Thursday that Brent crude could average above $100 a barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to normal tanker traffic for another month. The note highlights fragility in the recent US-Iran ceasefire.

"The situation remains uncertain," analysts including Daan Struyven wrote after the two-week truce took effect. They see price forecast risks tilted upward.

In the base case, energy flows rise this weekend and normalize within a month. Brent would average $82 a barrel in Q3 and $80 in Q4. An adverse scenario with one more month of disruption pushes Brent over $100 in H2. A worse case with prolonged blockade and upstream Middle East output loss lifts prices to $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4.

The note followed a ceasefire announced April 7 evening, brokered by Pakistan. Iran agreed to reopen the strait for a two-week US military pause. President Donald Trump set an 8 p.m. Eastern deadline that night as US bombers flew, sources said, before the deal. Vice President JD Vance called the truce fragile. Bloomberg reported the strait largely blocked as of April 8, with Iran controlling ship traffic.

The 39-day conflict has rattled global energy markets. Brent traded near $97 a barrel Wednesday, up from about $61 late last year. Saudi Arabia said Iranian drone and missile attacks knocked out over 600,000 barrels per day of its crude capacity, fueling supply fears. US and Iranian delegations meet in Islamabad today for in-person talks that could decide if the ceasefire holds or oil faces prolonged disruption as Goldman cautioned.

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