European natural gas prices surge amid cold snap and dwindling stocks

Wednesday 14 January 2026 - 13:50

By: Dakir Madiha

European natural gas prices surge amid cold snap and dwindling stocks

European natural gas prices climbed above 32 euros per megawatt-hour on January 13, 2026, marking their highest level since early November 2025. This spike stemmed from a harsh cold wave, rapidly depleting storage levels, and lingering geopolitical tensions rattling energy markets. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract surged nearly 14 percent over the prior two trading sessions, with a 6.6 percent jump on January 12 representing the sharpest daily gain since June 2025. Prices eased slightly to around 31 euros per MWh early on January 14, though analysts cautioned that volatility could linger.

A persistent Arctic air mass has gripped northern and central Europe since mid-December, driving temperatures well below seasonal norms in Germany, Poland, and the Nordic countries. Finland, Sweden, and Norway saw lows near -30 degrees Celsius, while central Europe endured sustained readings close to -10 degrees Celsius. This frigid weather accelerated withdrawals from underground gas storage facilities, now filled to just 54-55 percent capacity, down from about 67 percent at the same point last year. Daily drawdowns hit roughly 330 million cubic meters, raising trader concerns over depletion rates as winter drags on.

Beyond the weather, multiple pressures fueled the price rally. Carbon emission allowances in the EU's trading system reached 90.74 euros per tonne on January 13, their highest in over two years, pushing power producers to favor natural gas over coal and boosting demand. France's Flamanville nuclear plant, accounting for about 7 percent of the nation's nuclear capacity, remains offline after storm damage and won't restart until at least February 1, forcing greater reliance on gas-fired electricity generation.

Geopolitical uncertainties added further strain. Analysts at ANZ highlighted disruptions in Iran, coupled with fresh U.S. tariff threats against nations trading with Tehran, sparking fears over Iranian gas flows to Turkey and LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf. Turkey sourced 13.5 percent of its natural gas from Iran in 2024.

Despite the surge, TTF prices sit about 30 percent below January 2025 peaks, signaling improved supply dynamics since Europe's energy crisis crested. Weather forecasts suggest a thaw after January 15, potentially easing demand pressures. Yet with storage levels far below last year's and geopolitical risks enduring, experts anticipate ongoing market swings through the winter.