Climate change may halve global grazing land by 2100, study warns
Up to half of the world’s grasslands suitable for raising cattle, sheep and goats could become unviable by the end of the century as global temperatures rise, according to a major study that warns of severe consequences for pastoral communities and livestock worldwide. The findings point to growing risks for more than 100 million pastoralists and as many as 1.6 billion farm animals that depend on open grazing systems.
The research, published on February 9 in the journal PNAS, was conducted by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. It defines a so-called safe climatic space for grazing systems, which currently cover about one third of the Earth’s land surface and represent the largest food production system on the planet. These systems have historically thrived within relatively narrow climatic ranges.
Researchers found that grazing systems perform best under temperatures between minus 3 and 29 degrees Celsius, annual rainfall of 50 to 2,627 millimetres, humidity levels of 39 to 67 percent and wind speeds of one to six metres per second. Climate projections show that between 36 and 50 percent of land currently meeting these conditions could lose its suitability by 2100, depending on future emissions scenarios.
The lead author, Chaohui Li, now based at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, said climate change will significantly alter and shrink these suitable zones worldwide, leaving far less space for livestock grazing. He added that many of the areas expected to be hit hardest are in countries already facing hunger, economic and political instability and pronounced gender inequality, amplifying the social impact of environmental change.
Africa emerged as the most vulnerable continent in the analysis. Under low-emissions scenarios, it could lose about 16 percent of its suitable grazing land, while continued expansion of fossil fuel use could push losses to as much as 65 percent. The study notes that temperatures in many African regions are already close to the upper limits of the safe climatic space for grazing.
As warming continues, suitable climate niches in areas such as the Ethiopian highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin and the Congo Basin are expected to shift southward. Because the African continent ends at the Southern Ocean, these favorable temperature zones would eventually extend beyond the continent’s physical boundaries, effectively leaving no replacement areas.
Prajal Pradhan, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen and a co-author of the study, said traditional adaptation strategies may no longer be sufficient. He argued that the scale of projected change is too large and stressed that rapidly reducing emissions by moving away from fossil fuels remains the most effective way to limit potentially existential damage to livestock systems.
The findings also highlight a troubling paradox. Livestock farming is estimated to account for up to one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the sector itself is increasingly threatened by the climate crisis it helps drive. According to the study, between 51 and 81 percent of the affected populations already live in low-income countries struggling with food insecurity, high gender inequality and political fragility.
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