Climate change adds 47 harmful heat days to coffee regions
Rising temperatures and increasingly extreme weather linked to climate change are posing growing risks to global coffee and wheat production, according to two new studies published this week, with potential consequences for farmers and consumers alike.
An analysis released Wednesday by Climate Central found that the world’s main coffee producing regions are experiencing significantly more days of damaging heat each year. Across 25 countries responsible for nearly all global coffee output, growers faced an average of 47 additional days of harmful heat annually between 2021 and 2025.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia, which together account for about 75 percent of global coffee production, recorded an average of 57 extra days per year with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius. Temperatures above that threshold are considered extremely damaging for arabica coffee plants and suboptimal for the hardier robusta variety, which together supply most of the world’s coffee.
Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, said nearly all major coffee producing nations are now confronting more frequent episodes of extreme heat that can damage crops, reduce yields and affect bean quality. She said the effects are likely to extend beyond farms, influencing the price and quality of coffee available to consumers.
Researchers said extreme weather conditions are at least partly responsible for recent price spikes. In Canada, retail prices for roasted or ground coffee were 37.4 percent higher in January 2026 compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index.
A separate study published in the journal Climatic Change by researchers at Rothamsted Research warned that short bursts of extreme heat during wheat flowering could become one of the most serious threats to global wheat harvests in coming decades.
Using climate projections from 15 global climate models and the Sirius wheat simulation model across 53 sites in 33 countries, the researchers found that while drought during flowering currently causes greater yield losses than heat stress, that balance is shifting.
Global yield losses from heat stress during flowering are projected to rise by 32 percent by 2050 and by 77 percent by 2090. In contrast, yield losses linked to drought during the same stage are expected to decline over that period.
Mikhail Semenov, a mathematical modeler and emeritus fellow at Rothamsted Research, said flowering is one of the most sensitive phases of wheat development, when grain formation determines final yield. Even a few days of very high temperatures or severe water stress at that stage can sharply reduce grain numbers and significantly lower harvest volumes.
The research identified several major wheat producing countries, including China, the United States, Russia, Romania, Turkey and Kazakhstan, as particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of heat and drought during flowering under climate change.
For coffee growers, the longer term outlook is also concerning. Researchers estimate that by 2050, up to half of the land currently used for coffee cultivation could become unsuitable for production as temperatures continue to climb.
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