Algeria’s energy gamble: Desperate bid to reshape US stance on Sahara

Algeria is aggressively courting American energy giants in an effort to sway US policy on the Sahara dispute. With talks underway with Exxon Mobil and Chevron, Algiers hopes to leverage its vast gas reserves to influence Washington’s position on the decades-long conflict, in which Morocco has steadily gained international support for its Autonomy Plan.

Shale gas as leverage

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune hosted delegations from Chevron and Exxon Mobil in June, signaling the regime’s pivot toward shale gas development. According to Samir Bekhti, chairman of Algeria’s energy regulator Alnaft, technical agreements are nearly finalized, with commercial terms expected to follow soon. This marks Algeria’s first push into shale gas, as the country seeks to boost state revenues, with hydrocarbons accounting for over 75% of its exports.

More than just an economic strategy, the move reflects Algeria’s broader attempt to wield its energy resources as a political tool. Analysts suggest Algiers aims to build influence channels within Washington to counter Morocco’s growing global support and prevent the designation of the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization.

A faltering Sahara strategy

Despite its energy ambitions, Algeria’s approach to the Sahara issue remains rooted in outdated Cold War tactics. For decades, the regime has financed and sheltered the Polisario separatists in Tindouf while weaponizing its gas resources to pressure neighbors and global partners.

However, this strategy has yielded diminishing returns. Since the US recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Sahara in 2020, support for Algeria’s position has eroded. Washington continues to back Morocco’s Autonomy Plan, while major capitals, including Madrid and Paris, have also endorsed it as the only practical solution.

Algeria’s response has been marked by economic and diplomatic retaliation, including the 2021 closure of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline, which disrupted regional energy integration and damaged its own credibility. Such actions, driven by a desire to punish Morocco, have backfired, isolating Algeria and undermining its reliability as an energy partner.

Energy diplomacy or desperation?

Algiers’ reliance on gas as a political weapon is increasingly seen as shortsighted. European nations, spurred by the 2022 energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have diversified their supply chains, reducing Algeria’s influence. While Algeria has sought closer energy ties with Italy, its reliability is now measured against a competitive global market.

Even as it seeks to expand its partnerships, Algeria’s transactional diplomacy erodes trust, the cornerstone of long-term strategic alliances. Analysts argue that Algeria’s energy diplomacy is less about leadership and more about desperation, as it clings to outdated narratives on Sahara while ignoring the international consensus.

A state stuck in the past

At the heart of Algeria’s failure lies its refusal to adapt to modern realities. The Polisario Front, sustained by Algerian funding, has become a dependency trapped in the sands of Tindouf. The camps remain impoverished, while the separatist leadership profits from a decades-long stalemate.

Observers describe this as “colonization by proxy,” with Algeria exploiting the plight of the Sahrawis to sustain a grievance-driven narrative. Meanwhile, Morocco has taken concrete steps to integrate the southern provinces, investing in infrastructure, governance, and international partnerships that align with its Autonomy Plan.

The path forward

While Algeria clings to the past, history is moving forward. International support for Morocco’s sovereignty continues to grow, with the US recognition remaining firmly in place. Rabat’s pragmatic diplomacy has positioned it as a reliable partner, while Algiers’ gas-fueled brinkmanship isolates it further.

To remain relevant, Algeria must abandon its Cold War tactics, embrace modern diplomacy, and engage with the international consensus. Until then, it risks being seen not as a regional power but as a destabilizing force, sacrificing its own economic potential to keep alive a failing project.