Morocco Faces Significant Economic Losses Due to Climate Change: A 6.5% GDP Decline by 2050

Morocco is grappling with the escalating impacts of climate change, a challenge that demands urgent solutions across its economic, social, and environmental sectors. The World Bank forecasts that by 2035, 32% of jobs in Morocco’s coastal tourism sector could be at risk, a stark reminder of how climate change could destabilize crucial industries. These issues were discussed in depth during a recent webinar on how global warming affects employment in North Africa, organized by the local regional office of the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).

Experts from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) explored how climate change is reshaping economies, comparing Morocco’s vulnerabilities and potential with neighboring countries like Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria. Speakers at the event acknowledged Morocco's unique position in the region, with its ambitious renewable energy goals but pressing challenges in agriculture, water security, and urban planning. A close examination of the data reveals the urgent need for Morocco to accelerate its adaptation strategies to avoid falling behind regional peers facing similar pressures.

Regional Comparison: Climate Change Impacts

Climate-related vulnerabilities are widespread in North Africa, but Morocco faces a distinct set of challenges when compared to its neighbors:

Agriculture: While Morocco’s agricultural productivity is under strain from expanding arid zones — projected to increase by 12% to 41% by 2050 — Tunisia and Algeria also face similar pressures, albeit with varying intensities. For instance, Egypt’s agricultural sector is highly dependent on the Nile, making it vulnerable to water scarcity driven by upstream developments and climate change.

Economic losses: Morocco’s GDP is projected to shrink by 6.5% by 2050 due to climate-related disruptions, comparable to Tunisia and Algeria, which also face economic contractions. Conversely, Egypt risks losing up to 12% of its GDP by 2050, primarily due to the compounding effects of rising sea levels and water scarcity.

Tourism: Coastal erosion and rising sea levels put 32% of Morocco’s coastal tourism jobs at risk by 2035. While Tunisia and Egypt also depend heavily on coastal tourism, their vulnerability is compounded by geopolitical instability and infrastructure challenges.

Water resources: Morocco’s declining precipitation levels and poor resource productivity — 0.4 units of GDP per ton of material use, compared to the global average of 0.9 — are indicative of the region’s broader struggles. Algeria and Tunisia share similar water stress levels, but Egypt’s reliance on the Nile makes its challenges unique and potentially more severe.

Worker productivity: Climate change is reducing labor productivity across the region, with outdoor workers in agriculture and construction experiencing significant declines. Morocco’s informal workers face added vulnerability, mirroring trends seen in Tunisia and Algeria, while Egypt’s densely populated cities exacerbate the productivity decline due to heat stress.

Key Areas of Concern for Morocco

Agriculture is a vital part of Morocco's economy, but the sector is highly vulnerable to climate change. With projections showing arid zones expanding by 12% to 41% by 2050, Morocco faces significant threats of reduced crop yields, job losses, and food insecurity. Additionally, the tourism industry, another key source of employment and foreign revenue, is also at risk from rising sea levels and coastal degradation. While Tunisia and Egypt’s coastal regions face similar threats, Morocco's heavy reliance on tourism makes these risks particularly concerning.

The World Bank estimates that Morocco’s GDP could decline by 6.5% by mid-century due to the impacts of climate change, primarily affecting agriculture and tourism, sectors already strained by rising temperatures and diminishing water resources. In comparison, Tunisia’s economy could shrink by up to 30% by 2050, underscoring the broader challenges facing North Africa. The World Bank also forecasts that by 2035, 32% of jobs in Morocco’s coastal tourism sector could be at risk, a stark reminder of how climate change could destabilize crucial industries.

Furthermore, with over 20 million people globally displaced by climate events in 2023, Morocco is already seeing internal migration from rural areas to urban centers, placing additional strain on infrastructure and urban planning.

Policy Recommendations for Morocco

To address these challenges, the speakers at the webinar suggested that Morocco must focus on several key areas:

Regional collaboration: Strengthen partnerships with Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt to share best practices in water management, renewable energy, and climate adaptation.

Renewable energy investment: Build on Morocco’s leadership in renewable energy projects, such as the Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, to further reduce emissions and reliance on fossil fuels.

Green jobs transition: Invest in re-skilling workers for green industries, particularly for those displaced from agriculture and tourism.

Urban planning for migration: Upgrade urban infrastructure to accommodate climate migrants, ensuring adequate housing, public services, and job opportunities.

Adaptation in agriculture: Develop climate-resilient agricultural practices to mitigate drought impacts, ensuring food security and rural employment.

The Path Forward

Morocco’s climate challenges are daunting, but the solutions lie within reach. By leveraging its renewable energy expertise, fostering regional collaboration, and prioritizing climate-resilient policies, Morocco can emerge as a leader in sustainable development. The country’s proactive measures today will shape not only its future but also serve as a blueprint for resilience across North Africa.

Climate change is both a challenge and an opportunity for transformation. Morocco must seize this moment to safeguard its people, economy, and environment for generations to come.