Trump's 68% tax hike claim challenged by experts

Wednesday 11 June 2025 - 14:04

By: Zahouani Ilham

Trump's 68% tax hike claim challenged by experts

US President Donald Trump has raised alarms about a potential 68% tax increase if Congress fails to approve his comprehensive tax and spending proposal, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." In statements made on June 5 and throughout May, Trump emphasized the urgency of passing the bill.

However, independent evaluations have revealed that Trump's estimate significantly exaggerates the situation. The proposed legislation aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts, which are set to expire soon. If these cuts lapse, experts predict a much smaller tax increase of around 7.5% on average, rather than the dramatic figure Trump suggested.

The bill has sparked discord between Trump and his close aide, Elon Musk, who criticized it as a "disgusting abomination." The White House has not commented on this issue.

Expected Tax Impacts

Republicans generally support extending the full 2017 tax law, while Democrats advocate for maintaining lower rates only for households earning less than $400,000 annually. If the tax cuts expire, most taxpayers would see a tax increase, but the anticipated rise would be much lower than Trump's claim.

The Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center estimates that taxpayers earning below $34,600 could face nearly a 12% increase, while those earning $67,000 and above might see a 7% to 8% rise. While taxes would increase for all income levels, the increase would not approach 68%.

The Tax Foundation, although not providing specific calculations, echoed similar projections, indicating that Trump's figure is considerably inflated.

Experts suggest that Trump's claim may stem from a misinterpretation of statistics, as the Tax Policy Center noted that just over 64% of taxpayers would experience tax increases if the law is not renewed. The Tax Foundation corroborated this, stating that around 62% of taxpayers would face higher taxes.

Trump's assertion that failing to pass his tax and spending bill would result in a 68% tax increase is not supported by independent analyses. Projections indicate a much smaller increase, demonstrating that the situation is less dire than portrayed.