Norway raises oil and gas revenue forecast to $78 billion for 2026 amid rising energy prices

Tuesday 12 May 2026 - 10:19

Norway’s government has significantly upgraded its forecast for oil and gas revenues in 2026, expecting the state to earn around 721.1 billion Norwegian crowns (approximately $78.7 billion), driven by rising global energy prices linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The revised estimate marks a sharp increase from earlier projections and reflects stronger-than-expected prices in international energy markets. Norway, one of Europe’s largest energy exporters, produces around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, making hydrocarbons a central pillar of its economy.

Officials stated that the additional revenue will be directed into the country’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest of its kind in the world, currently valued at around $2.2 trillion. The fund is designed to manage oil wealth for long-term national stability and future generations.

Despite its strong fiscal position and consistent budget surpluses, Norway maintains strict spending rules to avoid overheating its economy. Authorities aim to prevent excessive domestic demand that could fuel inflation and push interest rates higher.

The Norwegian central bank recently raised its key interest rate to 4.25%, citing persistent inflation pressures driven by strong wage growth and elevated energy costs. Policymakers acted earlier than expected in an effort to stabilize prices.

The government also updated its macroeconomic assumptions, raising its forecast for average crude oil prices to $91 per barrel, up significantly from previous estimates. Natural gas prices were also revised upward, reflecting tighter global supply conditions.

Officials emphasized that while higher energy revenues strengthen public finances, careful economic management remains necessary to balance growth, inflation control, and long-term financial stability.