Renewables offset Hormuz crisis as fossil power output falls
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the war involving the United States, Iran, and Israel, was expected to drive a surge in coal use. Instead, new data shows global fossil fuel electricity generation declined in March as renewable energy absorbed the shock. Analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that fossil-based power output fell about 1 percent year on year, with gas generation down 4 percent while solar and wind rose sharply.
Solar output increased by 14 percent and wind by 8 percent, offsetting the decline in gas supply linked to the disruption of energy flows through the Gulf. Outside China, coal-fired generation dropped by 3.5 percent across markets representing most of global coal consumption. Even in China, where higher gas prices prompted some short-term shifts toward coal, overall coal use remained below 2024 levels. No previously retired coal plants were reactivated in response to the crisis.
The findings highlight a deeper structural shift in the global energy system. According to Ember, solar and wind power surpassed coal in global electricity generation for the first time in 2025, producing 5,072 terawatt-hours in the first half of the year compared with 4,896 TWh for coal. Newly installed renewable capacity in 2025 alone now generates about 1,100 TWh annually, nearly double the electricity equivalent of the liquefied natural gas that previously moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
The supply shock itself remains significant. The disruption suspended roughly one fifth of global oil and gas trade, tightening markets worldwide. A fragile ceasefire announced in early April has allowed limited navigation to resume, but uncertainty remains high as tensions persist and shipping routes continue to face restrictions.
Energy leaders say the crisis is accelerating an already ongoing transition. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said the shock could reshape global energy geopolitics and enable countries to reduce fossil fuel dependence within months. Analysts at Ember noted that, unlike past oil crises, governments now have viable alternatives through rapid deployment of renewable technologies.
Several major economies recorded declines in coal generation in March, including India, the United States, Germany, and South Africa. Researchers conclude that renewables are not only expanding quickly but are also acting as a stabilizing force during energy supply disruptions, reducing reliance on fossil fuels even during periods of crisis.
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