UK Labour's New Era: Morocco's Diplomatic Chess Game

The sweeping victory of the Labour Party in the UK’s recent snap general election has heralded a new chapter in British politics. With Prime Minister Keir Starmer now at the helm, ending 14 years of Conservative dominance, Morocco is meticulously evaluating the potential impacts on its pivotal foreign policy aim gaining global recognition for its sovereignty over Sahara.

Historically, the Conservatives have been generally supportive of Morocco’s stance, especially post-Brexit in 2016. In contrast, Labour has shown more empathy toward the Polisario Front, the Algeria-backed separatist movement. This shift in the political landscape raises concerns in Rabat that Labour’s ascendancy could impede or even reverse the diplomatic strides made in recent years.

Relations between Rabat and London flourished under the Conservative administration. A significant milestone was the association agreement signed on October 26, 2019, which included Morocco’s southern provinces. This accord, later upheld by the courts, provoked ire among Polisario supporters.

Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front, promptly congratulated Starmer on his Labour leadership win in 2020, applauding the party’s “strong and continuous solidarity” with the Sahrawi people’s quest for self-determination. Ghali expressed optimism that Starmer’s leadership would aid in “ending colonialism in Sahara.”

Such statements have not gone unnoticed in Morocco. While Starmer, during his tenure as opposition leader, avoided a clear public position on the matter, his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn had openly supported the Polisario cause. Corbyn declared in 2019 his long-standing endorsement of the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination.

Labour MPs have persistently critiqued the enhancement of UK-Morocco relations concerning Sahara. They have posed written questions to the Foreign Office and voiced support for the Polisario during meetings initiated by pro-Moroccan MPs advocating for Morocco’s claim to the territory.

Notably, Jeremy Corbyn, who remains a staunch defender of the Polisario in Parliament, now serves as an independent MP following his expulsion from the Labour Party in 2020 over anti-Semitism allegations.

Morocco Banking on Strategic Partnership

Despite these signals, many analysts believe that the UK’s strategic priorities and Morocco’s growing significance as a partner will ultimately outweigh any ideological inclinations within Labour. Sabri Lhou, a lawyer and expert on international law and the Sahara conflict, expressed confidence that Labour’s victory would not alter the pro-Moroccan trajectory.

Lhou argued the issue has transcended mere debate and reached a stage of decisive clarity and bold decision-making. He noted that major powers like the US have recognized Moroccan sovereignty and over 80 countries have endorsed Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the practical solution. On the ground, Morocco’s development in the region is accelerating with foreign consulates opening and international investments flowing in.

Crucially, Lhou contended, Britain’s strategic direction remains consistent regardless of the ruling party. The “deep state establishment” plays a crucial role in determining major foreign policy decisions, such as the rapid expansion of ties with Morocco in various sectors. The UK-Morocco association agreement, which includes Sahara products, epitomizes this state-level commitment.

Even under Corbyn’s vocal pro-Polisario leadership, Labour could not alter this trajectory while in opposition. The prevailing “deep state” trends distinguished Corbyn’s personal views from Britain’s national interests, which align with Morocco.

Lhou highlighted the London Court of Appeal’s 2022 decision that rejected a lawsuit aiming to annul the UK-Morocco association agreement. The court found no basis to distinguish the disputed region from Moroccan territory, establishing a legal precedent that binds any British government, including Starmer’s, based on international law and Morocco’s historical rights rather than political convenience.

As a permanent UN Security Council member, the UK has consistently supported resolutions since 2007 describing the Moroccan autonomy plan as “serious and credible.” Lhou argued it would be untenable for a Labour government to disregard these precedents or contradict the UK’s strategic interests as defined by the political establishment and endorsed by the public.

Geopolitical Shifts Challenge Traditional Ideologies

Professor Mohamed El Ghali, a political science and constitutional law expert at Cadi Ayyad University in Marrakech, noted that current geopolitical shifts complicate the prediction of European political parties’ stances on this issue, irrespective of their ideological leanings.

Historically, the left embraced progressive and liberationist visions, aligning with movements espousing such ideals. Conversely, conservatives were known for preserving traditional cultural values. However, El Ghali argued that Labour must now prioritize Britain’s strategic interests, making it unlikely that Starmer’s government would jeopardize UK-Morocco relations.

Significant progress in Moroccan-British relations has been made in recent months, spanning economic and political ties. Managing these bonds strategically transcends political affiliations and focuses on shared interests.

El Ghali predicted that Labour would maintain a conservative approach to Britain’s strategic interests. The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests the Moroccan-British relationship will serve as a model for future cooperation, particularly in strategic economic areas like energy.

The UK has forged pivotal agreements with Morocco to import green and blue electricity, leveraging the kingdom’s renewable potential. El Ghali emphasized that such advancements in bilateral cooperation are unlikely to be reconsidered under a Labour government, regardless of ideological differences among its members.

As Rabat braces for potential shifts under Prime Minister Starmer’s administration, it will likely depend on the robust strategic partnership built in recent years to navigate any political changes. Nonetheless, Morocco will be keenly observing Labour’s ultimate direction on this critical issue.