The geopolitical chess game in the Maghreb: Algeria's diplomatic entrapment

A complex power struggle unfolds in North Africa as Algeria faces mounting diplomatic challenges over the Sahara dispute, revealing deeper regional tensions and historical contradictions.

The diplomatic quagmire

In a telling diplomatic episode last week, Algeria's permanent ambassador to the United Nations, Ammar Bendjama, found himself cornered during a Security Council debate on displaced persons. Attempting to leverage the discussion to highlight the plight of what he termed "Sahrawi refugees" in the Tindouf camps, the ambassador instead exposed the growing vulnerability of Algeria's position on the Sahara dispute.

This latest setback comes as Algeria nears the end of its two-year mandate as a non-permanent member of the Security Council, a tenure that has failed to yield the diplomatic victories Algiers had anticipated. The incident reflects a broader pattern of diplomatic miscalculations that have increasingly isolated Algeria on the international stage.

Context misunderstood, case poorly sustained

At the heart of Algeria's diplomatic troubles lies what could be described as "a misunderstood context means a case poorly sustained" – a fundamental contradiction in Algeria's approach to the refugee situation in Tindouf. Despite Security Council resolutions spanning nearly two decades calling for registration of these populations, Algeria has consistently refused to allow identification or recording of those in the camps. This defiance prevents them from receiving protections under the 1951 Geneva Convention relating to the status of refugees.

The timing of Bendjama's intervention appears strategic but desperate. Algerian authorities are increasingly concerned that the Sahara issue is approaching resolution – one that would not favor their long-held position. This would leave Algeria responsible for populations largely not originating from the Moroccan Sahara, creating both humanitarian and political complications.

The psychological, financial, and geopolitical burden

Algeria's diplomatic position stems from multiple dimensions – psychological reluctance to acknowledge defeat, mounting financial strain, and a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

The self-assured confidence that characterized Algerian diplomacy in previous decades has dissipated. Financially, international assistance for the Tindouf camps continues to decrease as global priorities shift and damning reports of aid diversion come to light. A 2007 investigation by the European Commission's anti-fraud unit (OLAF) revealed fraudulent practices by both the Polisario leadership and Algerian military officials, though this report was kept from public view until 2015. Subsequent evaluations, including the World Food Programme's assessment of its Algeria 2019-2022 strategic program, have confirmed the systematic diversion of humanitarian aid intended for camp residents.

Economically, Algeria faces an uncertain future heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues that analyses suggest will be depleted by 2050. With oil prices below the $100 per barrel threshold needed to meet growth targets, the country may struggle to satisfy even domestic gas demand for households by 2030.

Seven monumental mistakes

Algeria's current predicament stems from what could be characterized as seven strategic miscalculations spanning decades:

First, in the euphoria of Third World solidarity movements, Algeria attempted to replicate its own independence model by creating the phantom "Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic" (SADR) and positioning the Polisario as a national liberation movement.

Second, they designed a flag for this entity intentionally resembling that of Palestine with added elements, hoping to generate sympathy by association with the Palestinian cause that had gained international recognition.

Third, Algeria maneuvered within multiple international organizations – the Organization of African Unity (later African Union), Non-Aligned Movement, and League of Arab States – playing one membership against another to advance its agenda.

Fourth, they pursued destabilization of neighboring regimes, particularly Morocco and Tunisia, through various means including support for armed incursions.

Fifth, Algeria forcefully imposed Polisario leader Brahim Ghali at the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 8) in Tunis in 2022, putting host country Tunisia in an uncomfortable diplomatic position that damaged its relations with Morocco.

Sixth, after the African Union's Accra summit decision in 2024 that only UN member states could participate in summits between the AU and international partners, Algeria unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent this ruling at multiple international forums.

Seventh, Algeria has employed diplomatic pressure and bargaining tactics against countries like Mauritania and Spain as punishment for their participation in the 1975 Madrid Trilateral Agreement on Sahara.

The shifting geopolitical equation

Recent revelations by the Washington Post and Jeune Afrique have added new dimensions to this regional drama. Both publications reported evidence that Hezbollah trained Polisario fighters in Syria and facilitated their participation in the Syrian civil war, with Algerian officers allegedly involved as advisors or operational commanders.

The strategic landscape has fundamentally changed since the 1970s when Algeria's then-president Houari Boumediene believed he could implement hegemonic ambitions across the Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa without significant opposition. Today, the association between separatism and terrorism has become increasingly recognized in international discourse, with many countries and regional organizations distinguishing between legitimate movements and those serving as proxies for regional hegemonic actors.

This shift was evident at the 2022 Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh in Marrakech, where participants identified separatism and terrorism as "two faces of the same coin." Following recent revelations of collusion between Algeria, Iran, and Hezbollah in supporting the Polisario, prominent lawmakers in the United States and Europe have called for designating the Polisario as a terrorist organization.

The drunkard's analogy

Algeria's current diplomatic position evokes the story of a drunkard who, having alienated everyone around him, desperately seeks confrontation. The country maintains open or latent conflicts with all its neighbors, employing subversion against some while using containment strategies against others. These targeted nations either remain unaware or barely respond to Algeria's frequent diplomatic communiqués and High Security Council declarations.

This approach reflects a fundamental disconnect from current geopolitical realities. Algerian leadership appears to operate in a parallel world, clinging to ideological solidarities and alliances that have long since dissolved. The country continues to invoke revolutionary rhetoric and historical solidarity between states that never existed before the independence movements of the mid-20th century.

The final contradictions

The contradiction in Algeria's position becomes even more apparent in recent developments. According to reports published by Sahel-intelligence.com in April 2025, Algeria has allegedly begun secret negotiations with Ferhat Mehenni, president of the Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylie (MAK), to consider granting Kabylia substantial autonomy within Algeria.

This consideration stands in stark contrast to Algeria's vehement rejection of Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan for Sahara. Similarly, while Algeria champions referendums abroad, it opposed Morocco's proposal for a self-determination referendum in 1981 in Nairobi.

These contradictions reflect a fundamental failure to adapt to changing global realities. The Maghreb region, once of limited interest to major powers, has become increasingly strategic with the more aggressive interventions of Turkey, Iran, and China on the African continent. Post-pandemic geopolitics has challenged established power balances, requiring more sophisticated diplomatic approaches than Algeria has demonstrated.

As 2025 unfolds as a decisive year for the Sahara issue, Algeria faces a critical choice between continuing a failing strategy or turning the page on decades of regional antagonism. Recent declarations by Salah Goudjil, president of Algeria's Council of the Nation, claiming borders with seven countries – including the unrecognized "SADR" in Tindouf – suggest the country may be moving toward establishing a "quasi-state" within its territory rather than acknowledging the changing regional reality.

The situation ultimately returns to the central question: which came first, the chicken or the egg? For Algeria, the answer may determine whether it can find a dignified exit from decades of diplomatic investment in a cause that increasingly appears to be lost.