Morocco’s economic growth forecasted to reach 5% in 2025

Wednesday 17 December 2025 - 12:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Morocco’s economic growth forecasted to reach 5% in 2025

Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has projected Morocco’s economic growth to hit 5% in 2025, driven by robust non-agricultural activity and a recovery in agriculture. The central bank presented this outlook during its final quarterly board meeting in Rabat. Growth is expected to remain solid in the medium term, averaging 4.5% through 2026 and 2027, supported by sustained investment and improved labor market conditions.

Sectoral performance and agricultural recovery

The non-agricultural sectors are anticipated to maintain strong momentum, while agricultural value added is set to improve, assuming a return to average cereal harvests. These projections highlight Morocco’s economic resilience amidst global uncertainties.

Global slowdown and domestic resilience

Despite a global economic slowdown exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, Morocco’s diversified economy and strategic investments provide a buffer against external shocks. The country’s ability to sustain growth reflects its robust economic structure.

Inflation and monetary policy

Inflation averaged just 0.8% over the first ten months of 2025, benefiting from improved food supply, including olive oil, and lower fuel prices. Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts inflation to gradually rise to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, aligning with price stability goals. Keeping inflation expectations anchored, the central bank decided to maintain the key interest rate at 2.25%.

External accounts and fiscal outlook

Exports are projected to grow, particularly in phosphate products and automotive shipments. Tourism receipts and remittances are expected to remain robust, contributing to a current account deficit below 2% of GDP in the medium term. Foreign exchange reserves are forecast to strengthen, covering nearly five and a half months of imports by 2027.

On the fiscal front, deficit reduction efforts are set to continue under the 2026 Finance Act and a three-year fiscal framework (2026-2028), further solidifying the country’s financial stability.

Monetary stance and future outlook

Bank Al-Maghrib’s board emphasized its commitment to data-driven monetary policies, highlighting the significance of monitoring both domestic and international developments. The board’s decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects confidence in Morocco’s low inflation and stable financial conditions. However, the bank remains vigilant to risks linked to geopolitical tensions and weather-related challenges.

In summary, Morocco’s economic growth is expected to remain resilient, supported by sectoral diversification, strategic investments, and a favorable external environment. Bank Al-Maghrib continues to focus on maintaining stability while fostering sustainable economic progress.