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Morocco Braces for Surge in Business Insolvencies: Economic Challenges Ahead
The Moroccan business landscape is set to face significant challenges in the coming years, according to a recent global report by Allianz Trade. The study, titled "Global Insolvency Outlook: The ebb and flow of the insolvency wave," predicts a substantial increase in business insolvencies across Morocco for 2024 and 2025.
The report forecasts a 13% rise in business insolvencies for Morocco in 2024, followed by an 8% increase in 2025. These projections paint a concerning picture for the nation's economic stability. In concrete terms, the number of insolvency cases is expected to climb from 14,245 in 2023 to 16,100 in 2024, reaching 17,400 by 2025 and 2026.
To put these figures into perspective, the projected insolvencies for 2024 represent a staggering 101% increase compared to the average from 2016-2019. This stark contrast highlights the severity of the current economic situation facing Moroccan businesses.
The surge in insolvencies is not unique to Morocco but part of a broader global trend affecting numerous countries. Analysts attribute this increase partly to a backlog of insolvencies that were postponed during the 2020 health crisis. As government support measures wind down, many businesses that managed to stay afloat during the pandemic are now facing the harsh reality of financial instability.
Certain sectors of the Moroccan economy are bearing the brunt of this economic turbulence. Construction, trade, and hospitality industries are among the hardest hit, with a significant number of companies struggling to maintain operations.
Despite the gloomy outlook, there is a glimmer of hope. Allianz Trade analysts suggest that at some point, there should be a decrease in "administrative" insolvencies - cases where inactive firms use insolvency procedures as a means to exit the business register. However, this potential relief is tempered by the expectation that domestic firms will continue to grapple with payment delays and increased fiscal pressure, likely preventing any significant downward trend in insolvencies before 2026.
These findings align with a separate study conducted by the World Bank and the Moroccan Observatory of Very Small, Small, and Medium Enterprises, which estimated the five-year survival rate of businesses in Morocco at just 53%. This statistic underscores the challenging environment faced by entrepreneurs and business owners in the country.
As Morocco navigates these economic headwinds, the government and business community will need to work collaboratively to develop strategies that can help mitigate the impact of rising insolvencies. Supporting vulnerable sectors, improving access to finance, and implementing policies that foster business resilience will be crucial in steering the nation's economy towards a more stable future.