Kamala Harris: The Democrats' Hope for 2024?

On a sunny Saturday afternoon, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris took the stage at a vibrant black cultural festival in New Orleans, sharing her life story and reflecting on her accomplishments in the White House. It was a typical appearance for the first female, black, and South Asian American vice-president, who has spent three and a half years as Joe Biden’s deputy. However, this time, the press contingent trailing her had noticeably grown, reflecting the heightened scrutiny facing Harris amid whispers of a potential presidential run.

As Democratic leaders in Washington grapple with the possibility of replacing the 81-year-old Biden following his faltering debate performance against Donald Trump, Harris finds herself at the center of a growing media storm. Despite the swirling questions about Biden’s fitness for office, Harris has maintained her focus on ambition and perseverance, urging her New Orleans audience to ignore the naysayers.

“People in your life will tell you, it’s not your time. It’s not your turn. Nobody like you has done it before,” she said. “Don’t you ever listen to that.”

Since the disastrous CNN debate on June 27, Harris has staunchly defended Biden, arguing that his presidential record should not be overshadowed by a single debate. Biden himself remains defiant, insisting he will stay the course as the Democratic nominee. Yet, as calls for him to step aside grow louder, some prominent Democrats are rallying behind the 59-year-old Harris as the natural successor.

On Sunday, Congressman Adam Schiff of California suggested on NBC's "Meet The Press" that Biden must either secure an overwhelming victory or pass the torch to someone who can. Schiff asserted that Harris could "very well win overwhelmingly" against Trump, a notion that has sparked debate within the party.

Harris’s critics, including some Biden allies, point to her unsuccessful bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination and her uneven record as vice-president, marked by low approval ratings. Nonetheless, influential Democratic figures like Schiff and South Carolina Congressman Jim Clyburn are positioning Harris as the obvious choice should Biden yield to party pressure.

Supporters highlight polls indicating Harris might perform better than Biden in a hypothetical match-up against Trump. They argue she possesses the national profile, campaign infrastructure, and appeal to younger voters necessary for a smooth transition just months before the election. Jamal Simmons, a longtime Democratic strategist and Harris’s former communications director, emphasized her underestimated potential.

“Whether she’s a partner to the president or she has to lead the ticket, she is somebody who Republicans and the Trump campaign need to take seriously,” Simmons told the BBC.

In recent weeks, Harris has adjusted her schedule to remain close to Biden, appearing at key meetings and events. On the Fourth of July, she even forwent her usual tradition of grilling hotdogs at her Los Angeles home to support Biden at the White House celebrations. As she ramps up her public appearances, Harris has focused on criticizing Trump, portraying him as a threat to democracy and women’s rights, while steadfastly supporting Biden.

Despite the growing speculation, Harris faces competition within her party. Other potential Biden replacements include popular governors Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and JB Pritzker, as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Congressman Ro Khanna. However, Harris and her team have avoided engaging in public speculation, though they are acutely aware of the behind-the-scenes discussions.

A memo circulating online, allegedly from Democratic operatives, argues for promoting Harris despite her "real political weaknesses," suggesting that bypassing her could disrupt the campaign and fuel intra-party conflicts. The idea of overlooking Harris in favor of another candidate is particularly unpalatable to many on the left and within the powerful black caucus.

Republicans, too, are preparing for the possibility of a Harris candidacy. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina warned that her progressive California brand could lead to a "dramatically different race" if she becomes the nominee. Trump, meanwhile, has derisively called her "pathetic" since the debate.

Ultimately, the pressing question for many Democrats, including major donors, is whether Harris has a better chance of defeating Trump than Biden. A recent CNN poll suggests she might, showing Harris trailing Trump by only two points compared to Biden's six-point deficit. Harris also performs better with independent voters and women in these polls. However, many experts caution against placing too much stock in hypothetical surveys.

Harris, the daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, does better in polls with black, Latino, and young voters key demographics that could energize the Democratic base. Yet, whether she can significantly increase turnout among these groups remains uncertain. Some Democrats also worry that her progressive reputation might alienate blue-collar voters in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

If Harris were to become the nominee, some Democrats suggest pairing her with a centrist running mate, such as Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, to appeal to Midwestern voters.

Given the advanced ages of both Biden and Trump, voters are paying more attention to the vice-presidential candidates this election cycle. Trump has yet to announce his running mate, with speculation centering on figures like North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum or Ohio Senator JD Vance.

Concerns about Harris's viability as a presidential candidate date back to her failed 2020 bid, where she struggled to define herself and dropped out before the first caucuses. This perception of her as an ineffective and absent figure has persisted during her vice-presidency, despite her focus on significant issues like abortion rights over the past year.

On the campaign trail, Harris has worked to connect with young voters on issues such as student debt forgiveness, climate change, and gun violence. The White House has also made efforts to bolster her public image. Still, her approval ratings hover around 37%, similar to both Biden and Trump.

At the Essence festival in New Orleans, voters expressed mixed feelings. Iam Christian Tucker, a 41-year-old small business owner, voiced uncertainty about a black female president's electability but emphasized her opposition to Trump. Greg Hovel, a 67-year-old Biden supporter from Madison, Wisconsin, praised Harris but remained confident in Biden's chances.

As the Democratic Party navigates this critical juncture, the question remains whether Kamala Harris can emerge as the unifying candidate to lead them to victory in November.