JPMorgan bullish S&P 500 call tested as Iran ceasefire wavers

Saturday 11 April 2026 - 10:40

By: Dakir Madiha

JPMorgan bullish S&P 500 call tested as Iran ceasefire wavers

JPMorgan adopted a tactical bullish stance on U.S. equities this week after a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, forecasting a potential 6 percent rally in the S&P 500 as market sentiment improves.

The outlook followed a strong market rebound on April 8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1,325 points, or 2.8 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.8 percent. The surge came after Donald Trump announced a pause in planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

JPMorgan analysts said a move above 7,000 points on the S&P 500 appears likely, pointing to parallels with previous rebounds after major policy reversals. They expect a strong first-quarter earnings season, with revenue growth near 10 percent and profit increases of about 13 percent year-on-year.

Technology stocks are seen as leading the upside. JPMorgan highlighted the “Magnificent Seven” and semiconductor firms as well positioned following recent valuation declines. Cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, homebuilders, and financials, were also identified as potential beneficiaries.

Not all analysts share that optimism. Marko Kolanovic, former chief quantitative strategist at JPMorgan now at Invesco, warned that the tech-led rally could reverse. He argued that the ceasefire is too fragile to sustain investor confidence and recommended a tactical strategy combining long positions in software stocks with short exposure to SanDisk, whose shares have surged about 260 percent this year on AI-driven demand for NAND memory.

Signs of strain emerged quickly. Oil prices rebounded after Iran accused the United States of violating ceasefire terms, citing continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and a drone incursion into Iranian airspace. S&P 500 futures declined, with Reuters describing market sentiment as increasingly fragile.

Tensions persisted into Friday as Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delegations gathered in Islamabad for talks mediated by Pakistan. The outcome of these negotiations is likely to determine whether JPMorgan’s bullish scenario holds or whether warnings of a reversal prove accurate.