Study warns of a sharp rise in wildfire activity across Europe

10:47

By: Azzat Manal

Study warns of a sharp rise in wildfire activity across Europe

Climate change could significantly increase the area affected by wildfires across Europe by the end of the century, according to a new international study published in the journal Global Change Biology.

Researchers estimate that the annual area burned by wildfires could rise by at least 39% compared with current levels under a relatively low global warming scenario. In a more severe scenario, where global temperatures increase by around 3.6°C, the area affected by vegetation fires could increase by as much as 192%.

The study was led by Mike Billing, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and examined how changing climatic conditions could influence wildfire activity across Europe. The researchers emphasized that increasingly hot, dry and windy weather is creating conditions that are more favorable to the spread of fires.

Under a scenario involving approximately 1.8°C of global warming, simulations indicate that Europe could experience a 39% increase in the area burned annually by the end of the century. If warming reaches about 3.6°C, the researchers estimate that the burned area could become nearly three times larger than today.

Central Europe, large parts of Western Europe and the Mediterranean region are expected to face some of the greatest increases in wildfire risk. These regions are already vulnerable to prolonged periods of heat and drought, which can dry vegetation and make fires more difficult to control.

The researchers stressed, however, that climate change is not the only factor determining future wildfire damage. Land-use patterns, prevention measures, early detection systems and firefighting capabilities can all influence the scale of fires.

The study suggests that stronger wildfire management could substantially reduce the area burned. Under the 1.8°C warming scenario, improved prevention and fire-management strategies could reduce the burned area by up to 92%. Even under a 3.6°C warming scenario, effective management could potentially reduce the area affected by fires by around 72%.

Wildfires are a natural component of many ecosystems and can contribute to biodiversity and ecological renewal. However, researchers warn that increasing fire activity, combined with more extreme weather conditions, could place growing pressure on forests, communities and ecosystems.

The findings highlight the importance of combining climate mitigation with stronger wildfire prevention and response systems. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions could limit the long-term increase in fire risk, while better monitoring, early warning systems and emergency preparedness could help European countries reduce the damage caused by increasingly severe wildfire seasons.