International Press Review for Monday, July 8, 2024

France Shifts Left: An Electoral Surprise

Thunderbolt! The "republican dam," hastily set up to counter the National Rally (RN), worked beyond expectations. It is the New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties, that leads in the legislative elections. For the RN, it is a severe defeat despite gaining seats. Although this party won the last two elections, the French, united against it despite their differing opinions, have clearly expressed their rejection. Despite support from a third of the electorate and popular themes, the RN continues to provoke fear and mistrust among the majority of citizens.

As a result, the left prevails. On the evening of the first round, few believed it. Macronist strategists, led by Gabriel Attal, claimed there was no risk in voting for the Popular Front, which they deemed incapable of winning. Yet, in an increasingly right-wing France, as demonstrated by the European elections and the first round of the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron is forced to form a government by allying with the left.

The president can take pride in having once again surpassed Marine Le Pen. Despite losses in seats, his camp fared better than expected. However, this victory should not obscure the chaos that is to come. The "clarification" he desired is propelling France into increased confusion. The National Assembly will be more ungovernable than ever. Macron, having lost his relative majority, must seek a coalition and avoid cohabitation with Jordan Bardella by favoring an alliance with a left-wing bloc dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Legislative Elections 2024: A Fragmented Assembly in Three Blocks, The Long Negotiation to Form a Government

Following the second round of the anticipated legislative elections on Sunday evening, Emmanuel Macron remains the master of time. However, the political landscape is set to be fragmented, with no absolute majority in sight.

In the most likely scenario of an Assembly split into three blocks—Renaissance, New Popular Front, and the left—the country would once again plunge into uncertainty. Intense negotiations to form a hypothetical "coalition" or even a "technical government" would likely delay the appointment of a new prime minister until an agreement is reached.

It is difficult to envision a resolution as swift as that of the 1997 early legislative elections, which saw a cohabitation government established in just four days. Prime Minister Gabriel Altaï might even remain in office during the negotiations, a common practice following a legislative election.

Starting July 18, the deputies will first need to elect the new president of the National Assembly, traditionally from the leading party. Several key figures are in the running, including the current president, Yaël Braun-Pivet (Renaissance), and RN Vice President Sébastien Chenu.

This will be followed by the formation of parliamentary groups, which are crucial for influencing debates. The presidential camp might see Gabriel Altaï seek the presidency of the Renaissance group. All these negotiations will delay the formation of a stable government in a tense international context.

Bitcoin in the Red: Worst Week Since November 2022

Bitcoin has experienced its worst weekly performance since the FTX collapse in November last year, plummeting 12% from Monday to Friday to reach $54,200. This drop has dragged other cryptocurrencies down as well, with Ether (-16%), BNB (-19%), Solana (-14%), and Dogecoin (-24%) also facing significant setbacks. Over $800 million have evaporated from the market in three days.

This decline coincides with the beginning of repayments to customers affected by the Mt. Gox platform. On July 4, the liquidator of the defunct exchange transferred 47,229 Bitcoins (worth $2.6 billion) from one wallet to another, fueling concerns about a massive sale by creditors receiving their funds in Bitcoin.

Another pressure factor is the demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which have been a market driver since January but are showing signs of fatigue, with several days of outflows this month.

The New Face of the European Parliament

The European Parliament is expected to reveal its new composition and the makeup of its political groups this week, possibly as early as Monday. Following the French legislative elections, it is anticipated that the National Rally (RN), currently the leading delegation in the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, will join the "Patriots for Europe." This new nationalist and sovereigntist alliance was launched on June 30 by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, leader of the previously unaffiliated Fidesz, along with the Austrian FPO, formerly a member of ID, and the Czech ANO, previously part of the centrist Renew group. Since then, Spain's Vox has left Giorgia Meloni's eurosceptic ECR group to join the Patriots, and the Dutch PVV has also left ID to join this new bloc.

“Strong and sovereign. Resist illegal immigration. We defend peace and freedom. And support Ukraine. We protect our Judeo-Christian heritage. And our families,” said Geert Wilders, leader of the PVV and winner of the recent Dutch elections. The Portuguese Chega party and the Belgian Vlaams Belang have also indicated their intention to join Viktor Orban’s initiative, which already includes elected representatives from seven countries, a necessary condition for forming a formal group. The RN's arrival would effectively mean the disappearance of the ID group.

The far right had at one point considered forming a single bloc comparable in size to the European People's Party (EPP, conservatives), the largest political force in the Parliament with 188 MEPs out of 720. In reality, it is likely to remain divided into two poles: the Patriots, who are the more radical, and ECR, a less vehement group considered acceptable by the central majority parties (EPP, socialists and democrats from S&D, centrists from Renew).

A Vision of France Under a Grand Coalition

By June 2025, France is governed by a broad and diverse coalition, ranging from the New Anti-Capitalist Party (NPA) to Gérard Larcher. However, the country is entering a recession. Major fiscal and regulatory reforms, such as reinstating the wealth tax (ISF), creating 877 new income tax brackets, increasing ecological standards across all sectors, and imposing confiscatory capital gains taxes, have unexpected effects. Although 100,000 new businesses are created, they turn out to be mostly self-employed Deliveroo riders and Thai masseuses. The deficit reaches alarming levels. Marine Tondelier, Minister of the Economy, decides to take on astronomical debt to fund the ecological transition. Although France becomes a global leader in double-glazed windows, the country is close to bankruptcy and can no longer pay its civil servants. Metro services halt, garbage is not collected, and only tax inspectors continue to work voluntarily.

By January 2026, the security situation deteriorates. Due to concessions made by Macronists to the Popular Front, 20,000 dangerous prisoners are released but are required to undergo an hour of training on republican values before their release. Despite this, crime rates rise rapidly. Gérald Darmanin dissolves Generation Identity. Interior Minister Mathilde Panot Blum allows any citizen of the world to apply for climate asylum in France with a medical certificate proving an intolerance to heat.

By January 2027, France continues to welcome climate refugees. The Eiffel Tower is converted into a reception center, while the Montparnasse Tower is demolished for reasons of human dignity. Marine Le Pen is on the brink of power. The RN is seen as a danger to the country, explains Gabriel Attal, while LFI could also cause unrest. The left claims it is ready to lead a violent insurrection to defend democracy. In the second round of elections, Rima Hassan faces Marine Le Pen. A republican dam is put in place. Édouard Philippe and Gérard Larcher participate in meetings with Louis Boyard; Emmanuel Macron and Danièle Obono appear together, wearing a keffiyeh. Le Monde publishes an editorial justifying the positions of La France Insoumise while condemning the RN.

Boeing: Settlement or Uncertain Trial?

American aerospace manufacturer Boeing finds itself at a crossroads. On one side, it can accept a settlement proposed by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and plead guilty to conspiracy to deceive the FAA, the U.S. aviation regulatory agency. This settlement includes a $243 million fine and the appointment of an independent supervisor for three years.

On the other side, Boeing can choose to risk a lengthy and uncertain criminal trial. The families of victims from the two fatal Boeing 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, which resulted in 346 deaths, strongly oppose this settlement and demand a trial.

The company has already acknowledged fraudulent conduct during the certification of the 737 MAX 8. In 2021, it accepted a $2.5 billion settlement to resolve criminal charges related to the crashes. However, new compliance and quality control issues have emerged following incidents on other Boeing models since early 2023.

Boeing's decision is crucial. Accepting the settlement would quickly close this painful chapter but would also mean giving up on contesting the charges and potentially facing a costly and damaging trial. Refusing the settlement and going to trial could be long, expensive, and uncertain but would allow the company to claim its innocence and attempt to rebuild public trust.

Unknown RN Candidates but Present in the Second Round in Corsica

The National Rally (RN) made a surprise in Corsica during the legislative elections by qualifying candidates in all four constituencies of the island, despite their weak local presence. On Wednesday, June 26, at 10:30 a.m., at the Campo dell’Oro hotel in Ajaccio, the RN presented its four candidates for the legislative elections to the press in an empty room.

At the podium, François Filoni, a veteran politician and candidate in the 2nd constituency of Corse-du-Sud, outlined the main themes of his program: purchasing power, energy, decentralization (but not autonomy), and authority. Despite a well-prepared speech, he made a few controversial remarks, including one about exchanging women for camels. Next to him were three other RN candidates, unknown to the public, preparing to do interviews with local media.

Ariane Quarena, 66, candidate in the 1st constituency of Corse-du-Sud, spoke of her political engagement in a trembling voice. In 2022, she discovered politics as a substitute for Nathaly Antona, an RN candidate who passed away suddenly after being elected to the European Parliament. Quarena, mother of three and residing in Ajaccio since 2021, claims she joined the RN by chance, concerned about insecurity and purchasing power. She justifies her love for Corsica despite her non-Corsican origins.

The French Say No to the Far Right

According to Ipsos at 10:20 p.m., the RN and its allies are projected to win between 138 and 145 seats, failing to secure third place. This time, the republican front worked fully. However, the situation in the Assembly, where three blocks will compete, promises to be confusing.

Once again, the French, faced with a historic electoral choice, defied polling predictions. Not only did the RN and its allies, led by Jordan Bardella, fail to achieve an absolute majority (289 deputies out of 577), but they also fell far short of this goal, ending up with only the third-largest number of seats in the National Assembly according to Ipsos estimates of Sunday at 10:20 p.m.

Éric Ciotti, an ally of the RN, could nonetheless secure enough deputies (14 to 17) to form his own group of Republicans leaning towards the RN, with the threshold being 15 elected officials. As a symbol of this setback for the far-right party, Marine Le Pen, denouncing on TF1 the "unnatural withdrawals" and the "bias of the press" that deprived her of victory, was abruptly cut off to make way for an intervention by Gabriel Attal from Matignon. Attal announced that he would present his resignation to Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning at the Élysée, but hinted that he might remain in his post as Prime Minister to ensure the successful hosting of the Olympics, a global event. Thus, the far-right dream of having Bardella at Matignon evaporated in the polls.

The Starmer Administration: A Fast Start After the British Elections

The days following British elections are traditionally marked by a series of gradual appointments, with new Prime Ministers often using the weekend to finalize their team. However, the administration led by Keir Starmer deviates from this norm with a remarkably swift transition.

By Friday afternoon, all key positions were filled, signaling an unprecedented start to the mandate in terms of administrative speed. Keir Starmer made a strong statement by firmly rejecting the controversial plan of his predecessors to deport asylum seekers who arrived illegally in the UK to Rwanda. This highly symbolic gesture contrasts with the persistent stance of the Conservatives despite legislative setbacks and international criticism.

Starmer's message is clear: the era of ideologies and abrupt declarations is over; it is time to focus on concrete and measurable solutions for national challenges. This approach marks a significant shift in British politics, highlighting a pragmatic management style from the very beginning of his term.

Expansion of Data Centers in France: Growth Amid Saturation in Ireland

Data centers, which house digital data, are proliferating in France as countries like Ireland reach their maximum capacity. A bill aimed at facilitating their establishment, although suspended due to the political crisis, could still boost this expansion despite the challenges posed by the increasing energy consumption of these infrastructures.

Perched on the edge of Seine-Saint-Denis, an imposing saucer-shaped building catches the attention of aviators, often mistaken for the Stade de France. This gigantic 40,000-square-meter complex houses the largest data center in France, located in La Courneuve. Inside, in climate-controlled and secure rooms, thousands of servers continuously blink, emitting a deafening hum. Despite this intense activity, no noise pollution emanates from this technological fortress to the outside.