India's Diplomatic Dance: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions and Alliances

In a move that has sent ripples across the global political landscape, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with China's leader, Xi Jinping, in Kazan, Russia, on Wednesday. This encounter, the first in five years, carries significant implications and has left Western powers, particularly the U.S., with a sense of unease.

As the dispute over alleged assassination plots lingers, the Modi government has firmly rejected U.S. attempts to draw India into an anti-Beijing alliance. Sanjay Ruparelia, a keen observer of Indian politics, suggests that while the U.S. may be privately disappointed, the complex nature of U.S.-India relations has always required a nuanced approach.

"The U.S. understands the intricacies of its relationship with India," Ruparelia said. "Despite disagreements, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two nations have strengthened their ties, particularly in critical emerging technologies and defence partnerships."

The recent sale of Predator drones by the U.S. to India, a powerful tool in extraterritorial operations, further underscores the strategic importance of their partnership. However, the tensions arising from India's alleged program of assassinating dissidents in Canada and the U.S. have created a delicate situation.

Modi's decision to seek rapprochement with China is influenced by multiple factors, including the desire to maintain India's traditional non-alignment policy. The geopolitical stakes involving major powers like the U.S., India, China, and Russia suggest that the assassination allegations may take a back seat to broader considerations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, hosting the BRICS summit, played a pivotal role in facilitating the Xi-Modi meeting. Professor Ho-fung Hung of Johns Hopkins University highlights the significance of this visual symbol of unity, a defiance of U.S. attempts to isolate Russia.

The history of India-China relations is marked by a brutal battle in 2020, where soldiers clashed with clubs and axes over disputed territory in Ladakh. Since then, there have been further incidents, including a brawl in Arunachal Pradesh, leading to a display of prisoners by the Chinese, which has infuriated India.

The Biden administration saw an opportunity in China's aggressive border behaviour, attempting to persuade India to join a U.S.-led Indo-Pacific alliance. However, India's participation in the Quad security dialogue has been limited, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for a deeper alliance.

This week's announcement of a resolution to border disputes has opened the door for a personal meeting between Xi and Modi. While Modi emphasizes "mutual trust and respect," Ruparelia cautions that the border issue is far from resolved. The question of whether China has retreated to pre-2020 positions remains unanswered.

Despite this, China's willingness to engage with India suggests a desire to maintain a non-aligned India, free from meaningful alliances against Beijing. Professor Hung believes India holds the upper hand in this relationship, with the U.S. having limited leverage over India's actions.

The alleged assassination plot targeting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Sikh separatist leader, has brought tensions between Washington and New Delhi into the open. U.S. officials claim electronic evidence linking the plot to India's intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

While the U.S. has raised the issue with Modi, India has responded by claiming rogue operatives were involved, setting up an inquiry and even arresting an official. Modi's signals of disinterest in ostracizing China or Russia, coupled with India's reliance on Russian arms, suggest a complex diplomatic dance.

The benefits of engaging with authoritarian regimes like Russia and China, which do not lecture on human rights, are evident. This understanding is likely to influence U.S. pressure on India over the assassination plots, just as Washington has muted its criticism of India's relationships with its rivals.

As India navigates these geopolitical waters, it finds itself in a unique and enviable position, courted by all sides. The experts suggest that these larger geopolitical considerations are likely to take precedence over any specific issues, including the assassination allegations.