Far Right Ascendancy: Germany Faces Political Earthquake as Elections Loom

The far right is poised to make history in Germany, potentially garnering the most votes in state elections for the first time since the Nazi era. This development has sparked both alarm and optimism across the country, with the upcoming votes in Thuringia and Saxony serving as a critical barometer of public sentiment.

For many Germans, the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a chilling prospect. However, others, particularly in the eastern regions, view the AfD as a harbinger of much-needed change. The political temperature has been steadily rising throughout the year, and the upcoming elections could mark a boiling point.

In Thuringia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced a hostile reception this week. As he took the stage in Jena, a small group shouted "Liar!" and chanted "Volksverräter," a term meaning "traitor of the people" that carries Nazi connotations. Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), along with his Green and Liberal coalition partners, are struggling in Thuringia, with polls suggesting they may not secure a single seat in the state parliament. Meanwhile, the AfD is leading the polls.

In neighboring Saxony, the AfD is neck and neck with the conservative CDU. The recent knife attack, allegedly committed by a Syrian asylum seeker and suspected Islamist, has intensified criticism of how successive governments have handled migration. The government's hurried response, including tougher asylum and knife crime laws, is unlikely to quell the broader discontent fueling AfD support.

The AfD's appeal extends beyond immigration concerns. Supporters cite opposition to what they perceive as overly stringent green policies, excessive state interference, and misguided military support for Ukraine. In the east, these sentiments are compounded by longstanding frustration with the outcomes of German reunification.

"You can constantly see where the east begins and where the west begins," says 16-year-old Constantin, a trainee car mechanic from Meiningen. "The east and the west, it’s true it’s connected now. It’s one Germany. But we see, in the difference, it’s big." This sense of being "looked down on" and resentment over economic disparities has driven many young people to support the AfD.

Despite allegations of extremism, including links between party figures and extremist networks, AfD supporters often dismiss these claims as smear campaigns by the media and state authorities. In Thuringia, the party is officially classified as right-wing extremist, and its leader, Björn Höcke, was recently fined for using a Nazi slogan, though he denies doing so knowingly.

"The people who live here have already experienced what it is like when the government starts to interfere too much," says Vivien Rottstedt, a 31-year-old lawyer and AfD candidate in Thuringia. Restrictions during the Covid pandemic and a perception of enforced "politically correct" viewpoints have further eroded public trust.

Meanwhile, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has emerged as a significant force, blending cultural conservatism with economically left-wing policies. However, it is the AfD that appears poised to win the most votes in Thuringia, with strong performances expected in Saxony and Brandenburg.

While the AfD's potential victory would send shockwaves through Germany, it is unlikely to take power due to an ongoing "firewall" formed by other parties against the far right. Nevertheless, the elections spell trouble for Chancellor Scholz and his coalition, which has been plagued by internal disputes.

"It’s new to Germany that we have that three-party coalition and it hurts a lot when you have a lot of disputes," says SPD activist Levi Schlegtendal. The results of these elections will serve as a litmus test of public opinion, a year out from federal elections where few predict the current coalition will be repeated.

The CDU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, appears most likely to take the chancellery, striking a more right-wing tone as establishment parties seek to reverse the AfD's rise. The upcoming elections will not only shape the political landscape of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg but also provide critical insights into the future of German politics.