Blinken in Saudi Arabia amidst Speculations of a Potential Reconciliation with Israel

The visit of the Secretary of State to the Saudi capital, Riyadh, comes nearly seven months after the onset of the Gaza war on October 7, which dealt a blow to what could have been a significant foreign policy success for President Joe Biden.

It also takes place ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, in which President Biden seeks re-election, a political timetable that could jeopardize the progress made so far in the Saudi-Israeli normalization process.

In September, prior to the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had claimed to be "getting closer every day" to an agreement that would also strengthen the security partnership between Washington and Riyadh.

However, the 38-year-old de facto ruler of the kingdom had also emphasized the importance of the Palestinian issue. He stated, "We must ease the lives of Palestinians."

As the fighting in Gaza continues and mediators struggle to secure a ceasefire, Saudi officials are emphasizing more than ever the necessity of creating a Palestinian state.

In January, the Kingdom's ambassador to Washington, Princess Reema bint Bandar Al Saud, declared at the World Economic Forum that normalization would be impossible without an "irreversible" path to the establishment of such a state.

While it is not surprising that Saudi Arabia links its relations with Israel to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian believes that "the price of normalization, particularly on the Palestinian front, has certainly increased." He adds, "What can be said is that something more tangible than theoretical is required. More than mere promises."

Saudi Arabia, home to two of Islam's holiest sites, has never recognized Israel and did not join the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, which saw its Gulf neighbors (Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) as well as Morocco establish formal ties with Israel.

During his initial campaign, President Joe Biden had promised to treat Saudi Arabia as a "pariah" due to its human rights record. However, since his visit to Jeddah in 2022 and his meeting with the Crown Prince, the U.S. administration has been working to find a compromise based on the Abraham Accords, a diplomatic success of his predecessor, Donald Trump.

However, the Saudis have made it clear that they will be more demanding than their neighbors, seeking guarantees of security from Washington and assistance with a civilian nuclear program equipped with uranium enrichment capabilities.

In the months following this visit, Israeli and American officials have made numerous optimistic statements, while the Saudis have remained more discreet.

According to Elham Fakhro of the Chatham House think tank, "Saudi Arabia is aware of the Biden administration's desire to reach an agreement." And Riyadh "is also aware that no other Arab country has as much influence as it does to lobby for the Palestinians."

However, the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,170 people according to an AFP count based on official Israeli data, derailed the process.

The Israeli retaliations, which claimed over 34,000 lives in Gaza, have been consistently condemned by Riyadh, which accused Israeli forces this week of committing "odious and unchecked war crimes." Even before the war in Gaza, a Saudi-Israeli-American agreement was far from certain.

"The United States will have to concede something, and none of Saudi Arabia's conditions or demands are easy," says Elham Fakhro, highlighting that "a defense pact will have to go through the U.S. Congress." "Its approval is far from guaranteed," adds the researcher, especially in the context of a U.S. election, which makes bipartisan agreements even more difficult.

Regarding the Palestinian aspect, an imminent breakthrough also seems unlikely, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clearly expressed his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state.

As Saudi analyst Hesham Alghannam points out, "From the beginning, Saudi Arabia has been clear: addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a manner that satisfies the Palestinians is a prerequisite for normalization with Israel."