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US tourism declines by 3 million visitors under Trump’s presidency
The United States has seen a notable decline in international tourism, with over 3 million fewer visitors in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 1.6% drop compared to the same period last year. Experts attribute this downturn to the policies and rhetoric of Donald Trump's administration following his return to the presidency. This trend threatens to derail what was expected to be a year of recovery for the American tourism industry.
Sharp drop in international arrivals
Research from Tourism Economics forecasts an 8.2% drop in international arrivals to the US for 2025, a stark contrast to the anticipated 9% growth in projections made in late 2024. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) warns that the US is the only one of 184 analyzed economies where foreign visitor spending is expected to decline this year, potentially reducing national tourism revenues by $12.5 billion.
Canadian visitors, who traditionally account for 28% of all international arrivals to the US, have recorded the steepest drop. By July, Canadian tourism had fallen 25%, with car travel plummeting 37% and air travel down 26%. For the first time in nearly two decades, more Americans traveled to Canada than vice versa. Border cities like Seattle, Buffalo, and Detroit have been hit hardest, with Seattle seeing a 26.9% decline in overnight visitors.
Political policies deter tourists
Travel industry experts cite several Trump administration policies as key factors behind the decline. These include reinstated travel bans targeting African and Middle Eastern nations, stricter visa processes, and increased immigration enforcement raids.
A new "visa integrity tax" of $250, effective October 1, will further raise the total cost of a US visa to $442 one of the highest globally. This tax affects travelers from countries without visa-waiver agreements, including Mexico, India, Brazil, and China. Gabe Rizzi, president of Altour, a global travel management company, commented, "Any additional friction in the traveler experience will inevitably lead to fewer visitors."
The administration’s global tariffs and controversial statements such as remarks about acquiring Canada and Greenland—have also impacted perceptions. A recent Longwoods International survey revealed that 80% of Canadians view US tariffs as a major deterrent, while 71% cite political rhetoric as a significant negative influence.
Economic ripple effects
The decline in tourism has far-reaching economic consequences beyond fewer arrivals. Visitor spending is projected to drop from $181 billion in 2024 to under $169 billion in 2025, a 22.5% fall compared to the 2019 peak of $217.4 billion. This reduction threatens jobs and tax revenues, with the tourism sector typically contributing $585 billion annually to state and federal coffers.
Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the WTTC, criticized the administration’s impact on the industry, stating, "While other countries roll out the red carpet, the US displays a 'closed' sign." Tourism Economics now predicts that the US will not return to pre-pandemic tourism levels until 2029, three years later than previously anticipated.
The downturn also extends to business travel, as investors and corporate travelers reconsider the US due to political uncertainties and immigration concerns. Meanwhile, Americans continue to travel abroad at record rates, further exacerbating the US tourism trade deficit.
