Russian war losses outpace recruitment for first time in January
Russia’s battlefield losses in Ukraine exceeded new troop recruitment by roughly 9,000 soldiers in January, marking the first month since the start of the full scale invasion that casualties have surpassed replacements, according to Western officials cited by Bloomberg.
The development follows a sharp rise in Russian fatalities late last year. Deaths reportedly reached as many as 35,000 in December 2025, about double the monthly average calculated by NATO for the year, even as Moscow’s forces struggled to secure significant territorial gains despite sustained offensives.
Ukraine attrition strategy shows signs of impact
Western officials noted that in December Russian losses were roughly in line with the number of recruits Moscow was able to attract each month. The shortfall recorded in January suggests Ukraine’s strategy of attrition may be eroding Russia’s ability to sustain manpower levels over time.
Estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicate that Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, including killed, wounded and missing personnel, with as many as 325,000 deaths. The report states that no major power has endured losses approaching that scale since the Second World War.
Ukrainian military assessments present similarly high figures. The General Staff in Kyiv said total Russian combat losses had reached around 1,249,380 personnel as of February 11, 2026. Western partners have linked the rising casualty rate to Ukraine’s expanding use of unmanned systems and precision strike capabilities, which have altered battlefield dynamics and increased pressure on Russian units.
Kyiv sets ambitious casualty target
Ukraine’s newly appointed defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, outlined plans to intensify operations against Russian forces shortly after his confirmation by parliament in January. He set a public objective of inflicting 50,000 Russian casualties per month.
Fedorov said 35,000 Russian troops were killed the previous month and that the losses had been verified through video documentation. He argued that sustained pressure would expose manpower shortages within Russian ranks, describing personnel as a finite resource already under strain.
The mounting losses complicate narratives promoted by Moscow, and at times echoed by members of US President Donald Trump’s administration, suggesting that Russia’s numerical advantage on the battlefield makes eventual victory inevitable. At the current pace of operations, Western officials estimate it could take Russian forces another two years to fully capture the eastern Donetsk region.
Putin faces renewed mobilization dilemma
Russia recruited about 422,000 contract soldiers in 2025, a decline of six percent compared with the previous year, according to Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council. Financial pressures on regional budgets have forced some local authorities to scale back signing bonuses offered to volunteers.
President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid launching another large scale mobilization, mindful of its domestic political risks. The previous call up of 300,000 reservists in September 2022 prompted hundreds of thousands of men to leave the country and fueled public discontent. With recruitment slowing and casualties rising, the Kremlin faces renewed questions over how to sustain its military campaign without triggering broader social backlash.
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