Russian oil revenues surge after US sanctions waiver boosts exports

Wednesday 18 March 2026 - 07:50

By: Dakir Madiha

Russian oil revenues surge after US sanctions waiver boosts exports

Russia’s oil revenues recorded a sharp weekly increase after a temporary US sanctions waiver and rising global prices linked to tensions with Iran triggered a rapid market reversal, easing months of pressure on Moscow’s energy income.

Seaborne oil export revenues rose by about 890 million dollars in the week ending March 15, reaching roughly 2.07 billion dollars. This marked the largest weekly gain since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Data based on shipping and pricing showed that Russia’s flagship Urals crude delivered to India’s west coast climbed to 98.93 dollars per barrel on March 13. The discount applied to Russian oil due to sanctions narrowed significantly, falling from 28 dollars per barrel in February to just 4.80 dollars.

The rebound was driven by two main factors. Global oil prices surged after Iran effectively disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening supply. At the same time, the US Treasury issued a 30 day sanctions waiver on March 12, allowing countries to purchase Russian crude and petroleum products loaded before that date, with shipments permitted until April 11.

Despite US officials stating the waiver would not generate significant financial gains for Russia, market data suggests otherwise. Indian refiners moved quickly to acquire about 30 million barrels of previously unsold Russian crude. Several tankers that had been idling were redirected toward refineries on India’s west coast. Russia’s total seaborne exports climbed to 3.97 million barrels per day, the highest level in three months.

The surge helped clear a large backlog of oil. Since mid December, around 140 million barrels had been stranded on tankers without buyers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that easing restrictions could provide Russia with up to 10 billion dollars to fund its war effort. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimated that Russia earned an additional 6 billion euros in just the first two weeks of the Iran-related crisis, equivalent to about 510 million euros per day.

The improvement comes at a critical time for Russia’s finances. The federal budget posted a deficit of 3.449 trillion rubles in January and February 2026, more than 90 percent of the planned annual shortfall. Oil and gas revenues had fallen 47 percent year on year to their lowest levels since the pandemic. The budget had assumed a Urals price of 59 dollars per barrel, a target that appeared unattainable earlier this year.

With Urals now trading above 75 dollars, each 10 dollar increase in crude prices generates an estimated 1.6 billion dollars in additional monthly budget revenue, or more than 150 million dollars per day, according to estimates cited from the Carnegie Eurasia Center.

The policy shift has drawn criticism from European allies and Ukraine. European Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis warned that easing restrictions could deliver unexpected gains to Moscow. Former US sanctions official Edward Fishman described the move as the first significant relaxation of measures imposed since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, cautioning it could weaken the broader sanctions framework. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the price surge may be temporary but urged producers to capitalize on the current conditions.