Morgan Stanley says Tesla nears 10 billion mile self driving milestone

Saturday 11 April 2026 - 11:40

By: Dakir Madiha

Morgan Stanley says Tesla nears 10 billion mile self driving milestone

Morgan Stanley said Tesla is close to reaching a key milestone in its Full Self-Driving program, with cumulative driving data expected to hit 10 billion miles by late May. The bank described the threshold as important for advancing toward unsupervised autonomous driving, while warning that rising costs could pressure the company’s financial outlook.

Analyst Andrew Percoco noted that Tesla’s fleet has already surpassed 9 billion miles, up from about 7 billion in January, based on company data. Elon Musk has previously said that reaching 10 billion miles is necessary to enable safe unsupervised self-driving. Morgan Stanley said the milestone strengthens Tesla’s position in autonomy but added that investors still need clear proof that fully driverless capability is imminent.

The update comes as Tesla rolls out FSD version 14.3, which the company says improves reaction times by about 20 percent. Musk also previewed version 15, stating it will significantly exceed human safety levels even in complex, unsupervised scenarios. He said the new version will rely on a model with roughly ten times more parameters than the current system, marking a major technical upgrade.

Despite progress on autonomy, Morgan Stanley highlighted financial risks. Tesla is guiding for at least $20 billion in capital spending this year, but the bank estimates total expenditures could reach between $25 billion and $35 billion. At around $21 billion in spending, Percoco projects negative free cash flow of about $8.4 billion in 2026.

The rollout of Tesla’s robotaxi program in Austin has also been slower than expected. Only a limited number of vehicles are operating without safety monitors, lagging behind Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, which operates a larger autonomous fleet in the city. Tesla still plans to expand its robotaxi service to at least seven additional cities by the end of June.

Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating on Tesla with a price target of $415, stating that improvements in robotaxi performance will be critical to supporting the stock.