Diplomatic Tightrope for Modi as He Visits Kyiv After Moscow

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Ukraine on Friday, just weeks after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. This visit is significant because Kyiv and several Western capitals had strongly reacted to Mr. Modi’s Moscow visit in July. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in particular, criticized the visit, expressing disappointment at seeing “the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow.”

So, is Mr. Modi’s visit to Kyiv intended to appease President Zelensky and other Western leaders? Not entirely.

India’s approach to balancing relations between competing nations or blocs is well-established. The country’s non-aligned stance in geopolitics has served it well for decades. This week’s visit—the first by an Indian Prime Minister to Ukraine—signals that while India will continue to maintain strong relations with Russia, it will also work closely with the West.

Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, suggests that the trip is designed to reinforce India’s strategic autonomy. “India isn’t in the business of placating Western powers, or anyone for that matter. This trip is meant to advance Indian interests by reaffirming its friendship with Kyiv and expressing concerns about the ongoing war,” he says.

The timing of the visit reflects that Indian diplomats have considered the strong reactions from the U.S. regarding Mr. Modi’s Moscow visit. India has avoided direct criticism of Russia over the war, which has frustrated Western powers. However, India has consistently emphasized the importance of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty and has advocated for diplomacy and dialogue to resolve the conflict.

Mr. Modi’s Moscow visit in July occurred shortly after Russian bombings killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including in a children’s hospital in Kyiv, which triggered global condemnation. Although Mr. Modi described the deaths as “painful and terrifying,” he stopped short of blaming Russia directly.

It is unlikely that Mr. Modi will shift his stance during his visit to Kyiv. The U.S. and other Western nations have gradually accepted India’s position, given India’s long-standing relationship with Moscow and its dependence on Russian military equipment. Despite diversifying its defense imports and increasing domestic manufacturing in recent years, India still acquires more than 50% of its defense equipment from Russia. Additionally, India has boosted its oil imports from Russia, benefiting from the lower prices Moscow offers—Russia was the top oil supplier to India last year.

The U.S. and its allies have frequently urged India to take a clearer stance on the war but have refrained from imposing severe sanctions or pressure. The West views India as a counterbalance to China and is keen not to disrupt this dynamic. As the world’s fifth-largest economy and a growing market for business, India’s role is considered significant.

Mr. Kugelman notes that the West will likely view the visit positively, seeing it as a sign of Delhi’s willingness to engage with all sides. “Mr. Modi has a strong incentive to demonstrate that it is not so aligned with Moscow that it cannot salvage relations with Kyiv,” he says.

This is crucial for India, as it seeks to strengthen its relationships with Western nations, particularly the U.S., and maintain the momentum of these ties. Eric Garcetti, the U.S. Ambassador to India, recently emphasized that the relationship should not be “taken for granted.”

India also requires support from the West as China and Russia have developed closer ties in recent years. While Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a counterweight to an assertive China, it cannot afford to take this partnership for granted.

Many commentators have speculated that Mr. Modi might position himself as a peacemaker due to India’s close relations with both Moscow and the West. However, it is unlikely that he will present a peace plan. “Is India really up to it, and are the conditions right? India doesn’t like other countries mediating in its own issues, especially Kashmir. I don’t think Mr. Modi would offer formal mediation unless both Russia and Ukraine are interested, and at this point, I don’t think they are,” Mr. Kugelman adds.

Ukraine will likely welcome Mr. Modi’s visit as an opportunity to engage with a key ally of Moscow, something it has not done much since the war began. President Zelensky, however, is expected to continue his criticism of Mr. Putin in Mr. Modi’s presence. Mr. Modi, accustomed to such situations, can handle this criticism.

Moscow is not expected to react strongly to the visit, as it has been accommodating Delhi’s multilateral approach to geopolitics. Beyond reaffirming its non-alignment policy, Delhi has broader objectives for this visit. India has been enhancing its engagement with Europe over the past decade, particularly with Central and Eastern European nations.

Mr. Modi’s visit to Poland, the first by an Indian Prime Minister in 45 years, and his previous visit to Austria, the first in 41 years, underscore India’s recognition of the growing importance of Central European nations in geopolitics. Analysts suggest that strong relations with these countries will benefit India. Additionally, the Indian government is reviving trade deal negotiations with Europe, including a trade and investment deal with the European Free Trade Association, which comprises Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.

While the war will be a focal point during Mr. Modi’s visit, Indian diplomats are likely to maintain focus on their broader goals. As foreign policy analyst C. Raja Mohan summarized, Mr. Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kyiv is about acknowledging significant changes in Europe and deepening political, economic, and security ties with Central European states.