Trump urges Iranians to rise as regime change path stays uncertain

Monday 02 March 2026 - 12:17

By: Dakir Madiha

Trump urges Iranians to rise as regime change path stays uncertain

President Donald Trump has urged Iranians to seize what he called a historic chance to topple their leaders after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the United States has not outlined a clear plan for what might follow any collapse of the Islamic Republic. In a video message released as U.S. and Israeli warplanes struck targets across Iran, Trump appealed directly to the population and security forces, telling them to “take over your government” once bombing stops and offering “total immunity” to those who abandon the regime while warning of “certain death” for those who resist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi echoed the call, framing the air campaign as an opportunity for Iranians to reclaim their country.

The appeal comes after a brutal crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late December 2025, during which security forces killed thousands of demonstrators, according to human rights groups and Western officials. Those protests posed the most serious challenge to the regime in years but failed to split the security apparatus, and Trump limited his response at the time to sanctions and rhetorical support. Now, following the February 28 operation that killed Khamenei and several senior commanders, the president has promised that strikes will continue “throughout the week or as long as necessary” and has described the moment as the “single greatest chance” for regime change in Iran.

Despite the scale of the assault, the administration has provided few details about what a post-clerical order might look like or which Iranian actors Washington would be prepared to work with. Trump has insisted he will not send U.S. ground forces, and Vice President JD Vance has stressed that the United States does not intend to become enmeshed in a long war. Analysts say that stance leaves a major gap between the stated political objective of empowering Iranians to remove their rulers and the limited military tools being used. Former Pentagon official Michael Mulroy argued that air power by itself cannot dismantle a regime if its core institutions remain intact, while military scholars note that U.S. forces also lack local partners on the ground comparable to the Afghan factions that helped topple the Taliban in 2001.

Political scientists and regional experts warn that expecting a swift popular uprising may misread conditions inside Iran. They describe a fragmented opposition, deep ideological and generational divides, and a security apparatus that has repeatedly shown its willingness to use lethal force against protesters. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said that while airstrikes can kill leaders and damage command structures, they do not create an organized alternative capable of governing a country of more than 80 million people. Others point to past U.S. interventions, including in Libya and Kosovo, as examples where air campaigns weakened regimes but also produced power vacuums and prolonged instability.

Early signals from inside Iran suggest the public response to Khamenei’s death is cautious and uneven. State media confirmed his killing on March 1 and announced 40 days of mourning, while large crowds gathered for official commemorations. At the same time, NBC News and other outlets reported small acts of defiance, including a crowd in the northern city of Shahsavar honking car horns in celebration and residents in southern Iran tearing down a monument to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s founder. Yet there have been no nationwide demonstrations on the scale of the recent uprising, and many regime opponents who faced lethal force in January have stayed home, producing what one NBC producer in Tehran described as an atmosphere of “quiet anticipation.”

Inside the ruling elite, officials have moved quickly to project continuity. Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official, announced the creation of a provisional leadership council under the constitution to oversee the transition and select a new supreme leader, signaling that key institutions such as the Revolutionary Guard, intelligence services, and bureaucracy remain functional. For some observers, the situation carries echoes of 1991 Iraq, when President George H. W. Bush called on Iraqis to rise up after the Gulf War, only for Kurdish and Shiite rebels to be crushed once Saddam Hussein’s forces regrouped. Those memories fuel fears that any premature uprising in Iran, without clear outside guarantees or an organized internal alternative, could end in another bloodbath rather than a decisive break with the past.