The Ukraine War Reignites Old Rifts in North Africa

The impact of the war in Ukraine has reached far beyond Europe's borders, reigniting old tensions in North Africa. Morocco, an unlikely player in the conflict, has found itself at the center of this renewed strife. The kingdom has supplied Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine through a deal facilitated by the United States, sparking new friction with its regional rival, Algeria. This arms transaction has heightened the risk of an escalating arms race and potential instability in a region already fraught with volatility.

At the core of this geopolitical quagmire is a complex web of factors. Ukraine, desperate for military hardware to sustain its war effort, has been seeking Soviet-designed tanks and armored vehicles from around the world. The United States, a key ally in Kyiv's fight against Russian aggression, has played a pivotal role in brokering these arms deals, offering attractive incentives to nations that possess such Cold War-era equipment.

Traditionally neutral in global conflicts, Morocco seized this opportunity not only to support Ukraine but also to upgrade its own aging military arsenal. According to a report from the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, the process was complicated: Morocco initially sent its tanks to the Czech Republic for modernization, but these vehicles eventually ended up in Ukraine, allegedly breaching the original agreement. Moroccan officials have voiced their concerns over this deviation from the initial plan.

Despite this hiccup, Morocco has since secured assurances from the United States that it will receive additional tanks as compensation for its contribution to Ukraine's war effort. The real prize, however, is a promised delivery of the latest M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks from the U.S., a significant boost to Morocco's armored forces.

This arms deal is closely tied to a much deeper and contentious issue: the decades-long dispute between Morocco and Algeria over the territory of Western Sahara. With the U.S. recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over the region as part of an agreement to normalize relations between Morocco and Israel, the kingdom has been actively seeking new allies while reinforcing its military presence against the Algerian-backed Polisario Front separatist movement.

Algeria, a long-standing Russian client, has responded by acquiring advanced weaponry, including Su-57 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems from Russia. The prospect of a full-scale conflict between these two North African powerhouses is alarming, with potentially dire consequences for the already unstable region.

North Africa is a tinderbox of instability, with ongoing turmoil in countries like Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Chad, Mali, and Niger. An armed conflict between Morocco and Algeria could set off a chain reaction, further exacerbating humanitarian crises and creating a breeding ground for extremist groups amid the chaos.

The stakes are high for the United States, given its significant economic and strategic interests in Morocco and its support for a swift Ukrainian victory. Russia, on the other hand, may look to exploit the situation by strengthening its influence in Algeria, potentially destabilizing the region even further, particularly as the West seeks alternative energy sources away from Russian exports.

As the possibility of a North African arms race grows, the world watches with bated breath, concerned that the Ukraine conflict could ignite a separate and potentially catastrophic blaze on the shores of the Mediterranean.