The McCain Republicans: A Pivotal Force in Arizona's Political Landscape

Friday 18 October 2024 - 16:00

In the crucial battleground state of Arizona, Kamala Harris is employing a strategic approach to secure victory over Donald Trump. Her campaign is focused on appealing to a specific demographic: the moderate Republicans who hold a deep affinity for the late Senator John McCain.

These voters, predominantly residing in the Phoenix suburbs, played a pivotal role in delivering Arizona to Joe Biden in 2020, marking the first Democratic presidential win in the state in a quarter-century. However, Harris' progressive past poses a challenge, as she aims to replicate her boss' coalition in this former Republican stronghold.

"The McCain wing is conservative, but not extreme," explains Phoenix-based Republican consultant Barrett Marson. "It makes it difficult for McCain Republicans to vote for Kamala Harris, as she represents the opposite of many of McCain's ideals. Yet, the contrast with Trump's actions makes the choice clearer for some."

Harris' strategy involves positioning herself as an institutionalist and casting Trump as a radical threat to American values. She has garnered support from prominent Republicans, including the late senator's son, Jim McCain, former Senator Jeff Flake, and Mesa Mayor John Giles.

Maricopa County, encompassing Phoenix, is a key target for Harris' campaign. With its large population of well-educated, center-right voters, Harris' allies believe it is essential to her path to victory.

"Engaging with Maricopa County suburbs is critical," says Jen Cox, senior adviser for the Harris campaign in Arizona. "Respect for the rule of law is a significant factor in McCain Republicans' support for Harris."

The state has witnessed a Democratic winning streak since 2018, with victories in presidential and Senate races. Democrats have also made gains in other statewide contests, including governor and secretary of state, during the Trump era.

Recent polls show a tight race in Arizona, with Trump holding a slight lead. While Harris has alternative paths to 270 electoral votes, Arizona could be crucial if Trump manages to breach the "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Harris' success in the state hinges on attracting historically Republican voters in Phoenix's populous and well-educated suburbs. These voters, once loyal to McCain, have soured on the GOP under Trump's leadership and have shifted their support to more moderate Democrats.

As Harris assumes the role of the Democrats' standard-bearer, she faces the challenge of convincing these voters of her moderate governance style, distancing herself from her 2019 presidential campaign's left-wing positions.

"Harris needs to assure moderate Republicans that she is not a radical socialist," says Mayor Giles. "She must govern from the middle and focus on problem-solving."

The campaign also emphasizes the rift between Trump and McCain, reminding voters of Trump's insults towards McCain's war record and his attacks on McCain's decisive vote to save the Affordable Care Act.

During a recent campaign swing in Arizona, Harris praised McCain and his ACA vote, highlighting her personal connection to the late senator.

Polls indicate varying outcomes, with some showing Trump leading by 5 points and others giving Harris a 2-point advantage. The key battleground remains Maricopa County, where Trump currently holds a 6-point lead over Harris.

The Harris campaign believes that a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in Arizona's constitution could provide a boost, particularly among younger voters. Additionally, the campaign highlights the dangers of Trump's allies' "Project 2025," which aims to dismantle much of the U.S. government and centralize power.

Despite the challenges, Harris' advisers remain confident. "Arizonans have consistently rejected the MAGA slate," says Cox. "I am confident that will continue in 2024."

However, Harris faces an uphill battle, as she underperforms her Democratic counterpart, Senate nominee Ruben Gallego, in several polls, particularly among Latino and male voters.

Gallego attributes his success to his status as a Latino male veteran, emphasizing the importance of understanding Latino men's values, such as supporting families and starting businesses.

As the election draws closer, the focus remains on Maricopa County, with Harris' campaign recognizing the mathematical impossibility of winning Arizona without securing this crucial county.