Poland’s birth rate expected to decline faster than previously forecast

Friday 30 January 2026 - 10:00

By: Sahili Aya

Poland’s birth rate expected to decline faster than previously forecast

Poland is facing an accelerated demographic downturn, as new official figures indicate that the country’s birth rate is falling more rapidly and earlier than anticipated. Recent data published by Statistics Poland reveal that the number of births has dropped to a historic low, signaling deeper long-term population challenges.

According to the statistical office, fewer than 240,000 births were recorded over a twelve-month period spanning late 2024 and most of 2025, marking the first time this threshold has been crossed. This development confirms that the decline in births is unfolding several years ahead of earlier demographic projections.

The sharper-than-expected decrease strengthens concerns about Poland’s long-term population trajectory. Official forecasts already point to a steady contraction of the population in the coming decades, driven by low fertility rates and broader demographic trends affecting much of Europe.

If current patterns persist, Poland’s population is expected to shrink significantly, falling well below its current level by mid-century. Demographers warn that such a decline could have far-reaching consequences for the labor market, public finances and social welfare systems, increasing pressure on policymakers to address family support, migration and workforce participation.