Morgan Stanley upgrades US LNG exporters after Qatar supply disruption

Monday 23 March 2026 - 15:50

By: Dakir Madiha

Morgan Stanley upgrades US LNG exporters after Qatar supply disruption

Morgan Stanley has upgraded its ratings on major US liquefied natural gas exporters Cheniere Energy and Venture Global, reversing bearish positions taken weeks earlier as global supply expectations shift בעקבות disruptions in Qatar.

Analyst Devin McDermott raised Cheniere to overweight from equal weight and increased its price target to $313 from $236. Venture Global was upgraded two notches from underweight to overweight, with its target lifted to $22 from $8. The changes reflect a sharp reassessment of the LNG market outlook following recent geopolitical developments.

The shift comes after Iranian missile strikes hit the Ras Laffan industrial complex in Qatar, the world’s largest LNG export hub. The attacks disabled around 17 percent of Qatar’s export capacity, including two LNG trains and a gas-to-liquids facility, removing roughly 12.8 million tonnes per year from global supply. Repairs are expected to take between three and five years.

QatarEnergy estimates the disruption could result in annual revenue losses of about $20 billion. The damage has forced a major rethink of supply dynamics. Morgan Stanley has abandoned its earlier projection of a global LNG surplus of up to 6 million tonnes in 2026, now forecasting a supply deficit of around 15 million tonnes.

The bank expects LNG prices to remain elevated, projecting a range of $15 to $30 per million British thermal units through 2027. This tighter market outlook has increased the attractiveness of US exporters.

Morgan Stanley sees stronger upside potential in Venture Global due to its higher exposure to spot prices, with about 30 percent of its 2026 cargoes not yet contracted. Cheniere, which sells roughly 95 percent of its capacity through long-term agreements, offers more predictable revenues but still benefits from rising demand and tighter supply conditions.

The upgrades follow similar moves by Bank of America, which also raised its price targets for both companies after the Qatar disruptions. Shares of Cheniere and Venture Global have risen sharply, with Cheniere reaching a record high.

The supply shock also affects global energy companies involved in Qatari projects. ExxonMobil and Shell, partners in the damaged facilities, face potential production losses. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure across its LNG operations and indicated that output will not fully resume until hostilities ease.