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Goldman Sachs upgrades Netflix to buy, citing advertising growth and buyback potential

Monday 06 April 2026 - 15:20
By: Dakir Madiha
Goldman Sachs upgrades Netflix to buy, citing advertising growth and buyback potential

Goldman Sachs upgraded Netflix from Neutral to Buy on Monday, raising its 12-month price target to $120 from $100, with analyst Eric Sheridan citing a "more favorable risk-reward setup" ahead of the streaming giant's first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 16. The new target implies upside of roughly 26 percent from current levels.

Sheridan's upgrade rests on three factors. First, Goldman projects Netflix's advertising business will grow from approximately $1.5 billion in 2025 to around $4.5 billion by 2027 and nearly $9.5 billion by 2030, supported by positive advertiser feedback at recent NewFronts events and rising adoption of the ad-supported tier. Second, the firm expects steady margin expansion, with Netflix targeting an operating margin of 31.5 percent for 2026. Third, Goldman described a scenario in which Netflix could repurchase "approximately 20 to 25 percent of its current market capitalization over the next five years," now that its unsuccessful bid for Warner Bros. Discovery is no longer a factor.

Netflix had paused share buybacks while pursuing an all-cash acquisition of roughly $83 billion for WBD's streaming and studio assets. That deal fell through in late February when WBD's board determined that a competing offer from Paramount Skydance represented a "superior proposal," triggering a $2.8 billion breakup fee payable to Netflix. Goldman noted that the breakup fee strengthens the capital available for shareholder returns.

The upgrade also follows Netflix's latest U.S. price increases, announced on March 26, which raised the ad-supported plan to $8.99 per month, the standard ad-free tier to $19.99, and the premium plan to $26.99. JPMorgan estimates those increases could generate approximately $1.7 billion in annualized revenue, while Needham forecasts North American revenue growth of around 300 basis points from the changes during fiscal year 2026.

Goldman's reversal comes after months of caution. In January, Sheridan had cut his Netflix price target to $100 from $112, citing uncertainty over the cost and structure of the WBD acquisition. With that uncertainty lifted and Netflix's advertising business gaining momentum, Sheridan wrote that the risk-reward balance has now shifted in favor of investors heading into earnings season.

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