Study warns US drug policies could cost Swiss pharmaceutical industry billions

12:59

By: Azzat Manal

Study warns US drug policies could cost Swiss pharmaceutical industry billions

New research commissioned by Swiss pharmaceutical industry association Interpharma warns that changes in U.S. drug-pricing policies could have serious consequences for Switzerland’s economy, pharmaceutical sector and patients.

The study, conducted by research firm BAK Economics, estimates that the potential cumulative economic losses could reach around 195 billion Swiss francs by 2040 if the most severe scenario materializes.

The analysis examines several possible outcomes with varying degrees of impact. Under its baseline scenario, growth in Switzerland’s pharmaceutical industry is expected to slow significantly, with average annual growth falling from 12.8% between 2015 and 2025 to 6.9% over the 2025–2040 period.

Under a more severe scenario described as a “sharp structural transformation,” the pharmaceutical sector could lose as much as 194.5 billion Swiss francs in gross value added. That figure would represent 22.4% of Switzerland’s current economic output. The researchers stressed, however, that this scenario does not necessarily represent the worst possible outcome.

The study estimates losses of around 27 billion and 77.7 billion Swiss francs under two less severe scenarios.

Much of the projected damage is linked to the U.S. administration’s proposed “Most Favored Nation” approach to drug pricing. Under such a system, prices in the U.S. market could be linked to the lowest prices charged for medicines in other industrialized countries.

Researchers warn that the consequences for Switzerland could extend well beyond any direct reduction in U.S. drug prices. In the most severe scenario, around two-thirds of the projected losses would reportedly result from indirect effects.

Faced with lower profit margins in the U.S. market, pharmaceutical companies could delay the launch of new medicines in countries such as Switzerland or decide not to introduce them there at all. Companies could take such steps to prevent Swiss prices from being used as international reference prices that could contribute to lower prices in the United States.

The study suggests that signs of this effect may already be emerging in Switzerland. According to an industry survey cited alongside the report, companies belonging to Interpharma developed 22 innovative medicines between January 2025 and June 2026, but did not seek reimbursement-list inclusion for seven of them. That represents roughly one-third of the new medicines developed during the period.

The pharmaceutical sector’s concerns are particularly significant given the importance of the U.S. market to Switzerland’s economy. In 2025, the United States accounted for approximately 29.3% of Switzerland’s pharmaceutical exports, making any major shift in American pricing policy a potential threat to one of the country’s most important export industries.

The findings highlight how changes in U.S. drug-pricing rules could create ripple effects across international pharmaceutical markets, potentially influencing where companies launch new medicines, how they set prices and how quickly patients in smaller markets gain access to innovative treatments.