Russia signals openness to Morocco’s autonomy plan for Sahara

In a significant turn in global diplomacy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has expressed Moscow’s readiness to support Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for the Sahara, framing it as a legitimate form of self-determination under the United Nations framework. His remarks mark a new phase in Russia’s discourse on the long-standing dispute, traditionally characterized by cautious neutrality.

Lavrov acknowledges Morocco’s proposal as a UN-recognized option

During a press conference in Moscow with Arab media representatives, Lavrov stated that Russia welcomes Morocco’s autonomy initiative as “one of the forms of self-determination recognized by the United Nations.” This explicit statement, his first on the matter, signals a nuanced shift in Russia’s position ahead of the upcoming UN Security Council session on the Sahara issue, which Moscow will chair later this month.

Lavrov emphasized that Russia’s position “is grounded in UN resolutions” and that any acceptable solution must gain the endorsement of all parties. He described Morocco’s autonomy proposal as “a realistic option capable of closing the dossier if it meets international legality and mutual consent.” He further clarified that Moscow supports dialogue-based self-determination rather than unilateral measures.

Historical and political background

The Sahara, formerly under Spanish colonial rule, became part of Morocco following Spain’s withdrawal in 1975. The Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, subsequently declared the so-called Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, contesting Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory. Morocco’s integration efforts focused on stability, infrastructure development, and regional autonomy within its national framework.

In 1991, the UN brokered a ceasefire and established the MINURSO mission to supervise peace efforts. However, the long-promised referendum remains unrealized due to political disputes over voter identification and competing claims. Morocco continues to promote its autonomy plan proposed in 2007 as the only pragmatic and durable path toward peace, drawing increased international backing.

Diplomatic recalibration between Rabat and Moscow

Russia’s evolving rhetoric comes amid a subtle realignment in relations with Morocco. Rabat’s decision last week to abstain from voting on a Human Rights Council resolution critical of Moscow was perceived as a gesture of goodwill and reciprocity. The move is widely seen as a strategic effort to secure Russia’s abstention or tacit support in the upcoming UN vote on Sahara.

This diplomatic balancing act follows years of careful engagement between both countries. Since His Majesty King Mohammed VI’s 2016 visit to Moscow, a strategic partnership has gradually matured, with Russia choosing abstention instead of opposition in key UN resolutions regarding the Sahara in 2021 and 2023.

International convergence around Morocco’s autonomy initiative

The timing of Lavrov’s comments aligns with growing international consensus around Morocco’s proposal. Recent analyses by the Policy Center for the New South describe Russia’s current stance as one of “constructive neutrality,” respectful of UN principles while recognizing the stagnation of the referendum option.

Like Russia, China has incrementally shifted toward Morocco’s vision, voting in favor of UN resolutions in 2018 and 2021 that described the autonomy framework as “realistic, pragmatic, and lasting.” Western powers, including the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, already endorse the plan as the basis for negotiation.

Toward a decisive Security Council resolution

The forthcoming Security Council meeting is expected to reaffirm support for a compromise-driven political process and may cement Morocco’s Autonomy Plan as the sole credible path to resolution. Analysts predict the development could mark a historical diplomatic milestone, reshaping North Africa’s geopolitical landscape and solidifying Morocco’s leadership as a stabilizing force in the region.