Israel-Turkey Rivalry: Ankara Sees Long-Term Strategic Tensions Beyond Netanyahu’s Leadership

Saturday 31 October 2026 - 15:00

Tensions between Israel and Turkey appear increasingly rooted in competing regional strategies rather than personal disagreements between their political leaders. An assessment published by Turkey’s National Intelligence Academy suggests that Ankara views Israel as a long-term strategic competitor, regardless of who eventually leads the Israeli government.

The findings, highlighted in an analysis by researcher Mustafa Enes Esen, point to Syria as the most sensitive arena in which the interests of the two regional powers could collide, raising concerns about the possibility of a broader confrontation.

Ankara Views Israel as a Structural Strategic Rival

The Turkish assessment, published on October 23 under the title Anatomy of Israeli Expansionism, examines Israel’s regional policies and their implications for the balance of power in the Middle East.

Its central argument is that Ankara considers Israel’s strategic orientation to be largely independent of changes in government. From this perspective, a departure by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not necessarily lead to a fundamental improvement in relations between the two countries.

According to Esen, even a possible rise to power by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot would be unlikely to eliminate the underlying disagreements. Although Israeli political figures may differ in their domestic and diplomatic approaches, the researcher identifies common security priorities concerning Iran, Syria and Lebanon.

The analysis therefore shifts attention away from individual political rivalries towards the broader military and geopolitical calculations shaping both countries’ policies.

Syria Emerges as the Main Flashpoint

Syria has become a particularly sensitive issue since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024.

Turkey seeks to support the consolidation of a strong central authority in Damascus, viewing political stability and influence over Syria’s future as important elements of its regional strategy.

Israel, meanwhile, prioritises maintaining its freedom of military action and preventing potential threats from developing near its borders. These different approaches create competing interests in a country whose political and security landscape remains strategically important to both sides.

The Turkish report also argues that Israel benefits from a fragmented regional environment. This interpretation reflects Ankara’s assessment and should be understood as part of the wider strategic debate surrounding the future of the Middle East.

Competition Extends Beyond the Middle East

The rivalry is not limited to developments inside Syria. Competition between Israel and Turkey also involves the Eastern Mediterranean, regional energy partnerships and emerging commercial corridors connecting Asia with Europe.

These areas carry significant economic and strategic implications, particularly as regional governments seek to strengthen their positions in energy markets, transport networks and international alliances.

As a result, disagreements between Ankara and Tel Aviv could influence diplomatic relations well beyond their immediate borders.

US Mediation Could Become Increasingly Important

Esen considers American diplomatic involvement potentially essential to preventing the rivalry from escalating into direct military confrontation.

Washington's position could prove particularly significant given its relationships with both countries and its broader interests in regional security.

The central challenge is therefore not simply whether Israel will move beyond Netanyahu’s leadership, but whether Ankara and Tel Aviv can manage their competing ambitions through diplomatic channels.

For Turkey, the assessment suggests that a change in Israeli political leadership alone would not be sufficient to resolve the strategic differences separating the two countries. The future of their relationship will largely depend on developments in Syria and the wider regional balance of power.