Israel’s Ultra-Orthodox Parties Reconsider Netanyahu Alliance: Coalition Uncertainty Grows

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Israel’s post-election political landscape is entering a sensitive phase as the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties reconsider their traditional relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The possibility that Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) could distance themselves from his political camp is adding another layer of uncertainty to negotiations over the formation of the next government.

The two parties have long played an important role in supporting right-wing governing coalitions, with their parliamentary backing often proving essential to securing a majority in the Knesset. However, disagreements over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students have increasingly strained their relationship with Netanyahu and his Likud party.

Military Conscription Dispute at the Heart of Political Tensions

The controversy surrounding the military service of Haredi students has become one of the most significant obstacles in relations between the ultra-Orthodox political establishment and Netanyahu's camp.

United Torah Judaism has expressed growing frustration over the government's failure to establish a satisfactory legal framework protecting yeshiva students from compulsory military service. The issue has become particularly contentious following judicial decisions demanding greater enforcement of military recruitment obligations.

For UTJ, continued political cooperation cannot be separated from progress on this issue. The party is therefore considering a more independent position in the negotiations, including the possibility of withholding its recommendation for a candidate to become prime minister.

Such a move would represent a significant departure from its longstanding political alignment with Netanyahu.

Shas Considers Its Options as Eisenkot Emerges

Shas, another influential ultra-Orthodox political force, is also examining its options following the election results.

Statements from figures within its religious leadership suggest that cooperation with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot may not be entirely excluded. This signals a degree of flexibility within the party, although its leadership has not established a definitive position on joining a government that excludes Likud.

The distinction between Shas and UTJ is important. While UTJ appears to be considering greater distance from Netanyahu, Shas has maintained reservations about supporting an opposition-led administration without Likud's participation.

These differences could complicate efforts to build a new parliamentary majority, particularly given the political conditions attached to any potential partnership.

Coalition Arithmetic Complicates Government Formation

The political situation is further complicated by the positions of other opposition parties.

Avigdor Liberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, has repeatedly opposed political arrangements involving ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly without a clear agreement on military conscription. His position creates an additional obstacle for Eisenkot, whose potential parliamentary support depends on bringing together parties with substantially different priorities.

The possibility of cooperation with Arab parliamentary factions also remains contentious among several opposition leaders.

Consequently, neither Netanyahu nor his opponents can rely solely on the election results to secure a stable governing majority. Negotiations will require difficult compromises over military service, coalition participation and the future direction of government policy.

A Potential Turning Point in Israeli Politics

The changing positions of Shas and United Torah Judaism could reshape the traditional alliances that have supported Netanyahu throughout successive political cycles.

Beyond the immediate question of who will lead the next government, the negotiations expose deeper divisions over the relationship between religious institutions, military obligations and the distribution of political power in Israel.

As consultations over government formation approach, the ultra-Orthodox parties' decisions could become decisive. Whether they ultimately remain aligned with Netanyahu, support an alternative administration or choose to stay outside the governing coalition, their choices will significantly influence the country's political trajectory.

For now, the possibility of a realignment remains open, with the military conscription dispute continuing to stand at the centre of negotiations.