Russian and Ukrainian military losses approach 2 million, study reveals

Thursday 29 January 2026 - 13:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Russian and Ukrainian military losses approach 2 million, study reveals

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, has resulted in nearly two million combined military casualties for Russia and Ukraine, according to a recent study. The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that by the spring of 2026, Russia will have suffered about 1.2 million casualties, including as many as 325,000 deaths. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, have reportedly endured approximately 600,000 soldiers killed, wounded, or missing. These staggering figures underscore the brutal toll of the war, which shows no signs of ending.

Since the full-scale invasion launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022, neither side has publicly released comprehensive casualty data, treating the figures as highly sensitive. The Kremlin has dismissed the CSIS report, claiming that only the Russian defense ministry has the authority to disclose such information. However, the thinktank relied on interviews with Western and Ukrainian officials and data from independent sources, including Russian outlet Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service.

The CSIS report highlights the extraordinary scale of losses, noting that Russian fatalities in Ukraine are "more than 17 times greater than Soviet losses in Afghanistan during the 1980s" and "five times higher than all Russian and Soviet wars since World War II combined." Russian casualties are believed to significantly outnumber Ukraine’s, with a ratio of approximately 2.5:1. Yet, Ukraine’s smaller population and limited manpower make its losses equally devastating.

Russia has responded to its mounting losses by ramping up recruitment efforts. The Kremlin has offered lucrative financial incentives and benefits to attract new recruits, with enlistment bonuses in some regions reaching tens of thousands of dollars. Additionally, thousands of men from Asia, South America, and Africa have reportedly been recruited, often through misleading promises or coercion. Conversely, Ukraine has struggled to replenish its ranks. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has resisted lowering the minimum mobilization age below 25, a decision that remains broadly popular among civilians but limits the pool of potential recruits.

Despite the immense human cost, the war has yielded minimal territorial gains for Russia. The CSIS report indicates that Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of just 15 to 70 meters per day in their most significant offensives since 2024. Recent data from the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState revealed that between January 1 and 25, Russian forces captured only 152 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, marking the slowest rate of advance since early 2025. Harsh winter conditions and fierce Ukrainian resistance have further hindered Moscow’s progress.

Peace talks remain elusive. Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States met in Abu Dhabi last weekend for their first negotiations since the start of the invasion, but no breakthroughs were achieved. The Kremlin continues to demand significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, which Kyiv has firmly rejected.

The conflict has now become a war of attrition, with both sides facing enormous challenges in sustaining their military efforts. The staggering casualty figures not only reflect the intensity of the fighting but also raise questions about the long-term implications for both nations. For Ukraine, the losses threaten its demographic and military resilience, while Russia’s unprecedented fatalities mark a grim chapter in its modern history. As the war drags on, the human toll continues to mount, leaving both nations grappling with the profound costs of this prolonged and bloody conflict.