Wedbush holds $600 Tesla target despite disappointing Q1 deliveries

Friday 03 April 2026 - 15:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Wedbush holds $600 Tesla target despite disappointing Q1 deliveries

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reaffirmed his Outperform rating and $600 price target for Tesla on Thursday, looking past disappointing first-quarter deliveries to focus on the company's pivot toward autonomous driving, robotaxis, and robotics.

"While the delivery numbers were quite disappointing, this was not a surprise to us given the current EV market backdrop across all regions as the company shifts its focus more toward its AI strategy," Ives wrote in a note to clients.

Tesla reported 358,023 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter of 2026, falling short of the consensus estimate of 365,645 units compiled from 23 sell-side analysts. The company produced 408,386 vehicles during the quarter, leaving a gap of roughly 50,000 units added to inventory. Deliveries rose 6.3 percent year-on-year compared with a period when the company had paused Model Y production at several factories, but fell approximately 14 percent from the fourth quarter of 2025. Tesla shares dropped around 4 percent in Thursday's session following the announcement, extending a year-to-date decline of more than 15 percent. The company will report full first-quarter financial results on April 22.

Ives argued that Tesla's long-term value rests on its autonomous driving and robotics roadmap, underpinned by approximately $20 billion in planned capital expenditure tied to new factories for the Cybercab, the Optimus humanoid robot, battery production, and AI computing. He noted that high-volume Cybercab production is expected to begin in April or May, calling it "the golden goose to unlock TSLA's AI valuation."

Tesla has already begun deploying unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin, which Ives described as "a gradual step toward a 2026 launch in multiple cities." On Full Self-Driving, the analyst highlighted Tesla's February shift to a subscription-only model as a move that could push FSD adoption beyond 50 percent and reshape margins. In Europe, Dutch regulators set April 10 as the expected approval date for FSD Supervised, potentially opening the door to broader continental deployment.

China stood out as a relative bright spot. Tesla's Shanghai factory recorded wholesale deliveries of more than 213,000 units in the first quarter, up roughly 24 percent year-on-year. For February alone, the plant posted a 91 percent year-on-year surge.

Tesla nonetheless faces mounting pressure. The company has recorded two consecutive years of declining annual global deliveries, falling from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.64 million in 2025. The expiration of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit continues to weigh on U.S. demand, while competition from BYD and other Chinese manufacturers intensifies abroad.

"We continue to believe the most important chapter in Tesla's growth story is beginning now with the AI era opening up," Ives wrote.