Trump predicts Cuba's collapse after Venezuela cuts off oil lifeline

Monday 05 January 2026 - 08:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Trump predicts Cuba's collapse after Venezuela cuts off oil lifeline

President Donald Trump forecasted the imminent downfall of Cuba following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, which severed the island nation's critical supply of subsidized Venezuelan petroleum. Speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Washington on January 4 and 5, Trump asserted that no military intervention would be needed, as the communist regime appeared poised to crumble internally without its economic lifeline.

"Cuba is ready to fall. It seems on the brink," Trump told reporters. "I'm not sure how they can hold on, with no revenue now. They relied entirely on Venezuela, especially its oil. They get none anymore."

The prediction came after U.S. forces killed 32 Cuban military and intelligence officers during Operation Absolute Resolve, the raid that seized Maduro and his wife in Caracas in the early hours of January 3. Cuba declared two days of national mourning on January 5 and 6 to honor those lost, whom Havana described as dying in fierce direct combat or from subsequent bombings.

Cuba's economy had leaned heavily on 30,000 to 35,000 barrels of subsidized Venezuelan oil daily, traded for Cuban military advisors, intelligence personnel, doctors, and teachers in a decades-old alliance. Trump's December 2025 blockade on Venezuelan oil exports, combined with Maduro's capture, ended this vital flow amid Cuba's worst energy crisis since the Soviet Union's collapse.

Throughout 2025, prolonged blackouts stretching up to 20 hours daily plagued provinces, with the national grid failing repeatedly. Even Havana, once shielded from severe outages, now faces regular 10-hour power cuts. These disruptions have ravaged productivity, left millions without reliable water, and fueled an economic spiral where the dollar hit 435 pesos by year's end.

Trump's comments echoed his broader push to reassert U.S. dominance in Latin America via what he dubs the "Don-roe doctrine," reviving the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. "Our new security strategy ensures American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere will never again be challenged," he stated at a Mar-a-Lago press conference. He also warned Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Venezuela's interim leader Delcy Rodríguez of a potential "second strike" if demands go unmet.

The operation drew sharp international backlash from Russia, China, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, who condemned it as a breach of international law and a perilous precedent.