Saudi Arabia: Trump Links Civil Nuclear Agreement to Normalization with Israel

The U.S.-Saudi nuclear file enters a new phase. President Donald Trump has submitted a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress, officially opening the parliamentary review period mandated by U.S. legislation. However, the future of the agreement is closely tied to another, much more political issue: the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Israel.

The agreement, signed in July by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, aims to establish the legal framework for decades of civil nuclear cooperation. The text is expected to facilitate the participation of American companies in the development of Saudi Arabia's nuclear program.

A 90-Day Review in Congress

The submission of the document to Congress is a step mandated by the Atomic Energy Act. Legislators have a 90-day session to review the agreement and may attempt to oppose it through a joint resolution. In the absence of a rejection according to the prescribed procedure, the text can come into effect.

This step, however, is likely to provoke significant debates in Washington. Several lawmakers and non-proliferation experts are questioning the safeguards intended to prevent civil nuclear technologies and capabilities from eventually contributing to the development of a military program.

The full content of the agreement submitted to Congress is classified, which also raises questions about its specific provisions. Nevertheless, the announced framework envisions long-term civil nuclear cooperation and a significant role for American companies in developing the Saudi sector.

American Reactors at the Core of the Project

From an industrial perspective, the partnership opens considerable prospects for the American nuclear industry. The agreement is expected to allow U.S. companies to participate in Saudi Arabia's nuclear program, particularly with opportunities surrounding AP1000 reactor technology.

The project aligns with Riyadh's ambition to develop a civil nuclear capacity to meet its energy needs and further diversify its economy. For Washington, it also represents an opportunity to strengthen the presence of American industry in a nuclear market poised for growth. The U.S. Department of Energy thus presents the agreement as a multi-billion dollar, multi-decade partnership.

However, the energy dimension is only part of the issue. Concerns related to uranium enrichment have raised alarms among non-proliferation specialists. Reports published in July indicated a pathway for Saudi Arabia to develop certain enrichment capabilities within its civil program.

Trump Now Links Nuclear to Israel

The most sensitive aspect of the file remains diplomatic. Donald Trump has clearly stated that the implementation of the nuclear agreement is conditioned upon the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel within the framework of the Abraham Accords. The White House has confirmed that the president's position has not changed.

This requirement gives the text a scope that extends far beyond energy cooperation. For the Trump administration, the nuclear agreement can thus become a lever to foster a deeper transformation of relations among the major powers in the Middle East.

The Abraham Accords, launched during Donald Trump's first term, facilitated the establishment or normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. A potential accession by Saudi Arabia would represent a significant diplomatic advance given the kingdom's political and religious weight in the Arab and Muslim world.

Riyadh Keeps the Palestinian Issue at the Center

The main obstacle remains Saudi Arabia's position on the Palestinian issue. Riyadh asserts that normalization with Israel must be accompanied by a credible and irreversible perspective towards the creation of a Palestinian state. This requirement has strengthened in the context of the war in Gaza that erupted in October 2023.

The American condition and the Saudi position thus lie at the heart of a complex diplomatic equation. Washington seeks to use nuclear cooperation and strategic relations with Riyadh to promote normalization with Israel, while the kingdom seeks to obtain political guarantees on the Palestinian issue before taking this step.

The file thus finds itself at the intersection of three issues: American industrial interests, Saudi energy ambitions, and the diplomatic reshaping of the Middle East.

An Agreement that Extends Years of Negotiations

Nuclear cooperation between Washington and Riyadh is not an entirely new initiative. Donald Trump had already worked on a similar project during his first term. The Biden administration subsequently continued discussions, also seeking to frame a potential agreement within a broader normalization dynamic between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The negotiations had taken on a new dimension before the war in Gaza disrupted regional balances. Since then, Saudi-Israeli normalization has become politically much more challenging.

A Political Battle Looms in Washington

The submission of the text to Congress does not mean that the agreement is definitively secured. Legislators will need to examine its implications for security, non-proliferation, and U.S. foreign policy.

The issue of nuclear safeguards is expected to be particularly sensitive. Critics highlight the possibility that Riyadh could develop capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle, while some officials and experts fear that such a development could increase proliferation risks in the Middle East.

For Donald Trump, the challenge now lies in simultaneously advancing two issues that do not necessarily follow the same timeline: obtaining political and parliamentary approval for nuclear cooperation while pushing Saudi Arabia towards normalization with Israel.

The agreement thus enters a decisive period. Its future will depend as much on the debates in the U.S. Congress as on the evolution of positions from Riyadh, Jerusalem, and Washington regarding the Palestinian issue and the security architecture of the Middle East.