Putin signals new nuclear era as last US Russia treaty expires

Monday 23 February 2026 - 08:20

By: Dakir Madiha

Putin signals new nuclear era as last US Russia treaty expires

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the buildup of Russia’s nuclear arsenal an “absolute priority” after the collapse of the last remaining arms control treaty with the United States, signalling a more dangerous phase in great power rivalry. In a video address released for Defender of the Fatherland Day, Putin said strengthening the nuclear “triad” of land, sea and air‑launched weapons is essential to guaranteeing Russia’s security and maintaining what he called a global balance of power. He also promised continued investment in conventional forces, saying Moscow was drawing on lessons from the war in Ukraine to improve readiness, mobility and the ability to fight in harsh conditions.

His message came days after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, expired on 5 February, leaving Washington and Moscow without any legally binding limits on their deployed strategic nuclear weapons for the first time in more than half a century. The 2010 accord had capped each side at 1,550 deployed long‑range nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and heavy bombers, backed by detailed inspection and verification rules. Extended once in 2021, it could not be prolonged again under its terms and lapsed without a successor in place. Together, the United States and Russia hold the vast majority of the world’s nuclear warheads, meaning the treaty’s demise removes the central legal barrier to a renewed arms buildup.

Russian officials say they will behave “responsibly” despite the absence of constraints, and have indicated they are prepared to keep observing New START’s numerical ceilings on a voluntary basis if Washington does the same. Putin has said Moscow earlier proposed continuing to apply those limits for an extra year while negotiations on a broader framework took place, but that the United States did not accept the offer. In the United States, President Donald Trump has argued that New START “no longer serves its purpose” and that any future deal must reflect the rise of China’s nuclear forces as a third major player. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has echoed that position, insisting that arms control in the twenty‑first century cannot ignore Beijing’s expanding arsenal.

Arms control specialists warn that the end of New START strips away transparency and predictability at a time when nuclear modernization programs are accelerating on all sides. Analysts note that Russia is already well advanced in deploying new delivery systems and could, if it chose, increase the number of warheads on its strategic launchers relatively quickly now that formal caps have disappeared. China, which is not bound by any bilateral limits beyond its obligations under the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty, is also expanding its stockpile and has repeatedly rejected three‑way negotiations on the grounds that its arsenal remains far smaller than those of Washington and Moscow. Experts fear that, without verifiable rules and regular dialogue, mistrust and worst‑case planning will drive a three‑cornered arms race that is harder to manage and more prone to miscalculation.

The timing of Putin’s message, just days before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, underscores how intertwined nuclear signalling has become with the war and broader confrontation with the West. Western governments have condemned repeated nuclear hints from Moscow during the conflict, arguing that they undermine long‑standing norms against nuclear coercion. With no negotiations currently under way and the global non‑proliferation regime under mounting strain, diplomats and experts are now debating whether limited confidence‑building steps among nuclear‑armed states can help shore up stability in the absence of a comprehensive US‑Russia treaty.